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[RotoGuru logo]
[RotoGuru subtitle]

Daily blurbs from the Guru
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“Chris is going to score regardless. He's got the ball in his hands every single time. Every single play it's Chris Paul. He's going to score. So we decided to put Bruce [Bowen] on Peja and at least hold somebody down because Peja was killing us.” -- Spurs guard Tony Parker, after a 110-99 home win over New Orleans

5/9 - From the empirical evidence of yesterday’s price movements, it looks like one person picked up Daniel Cabrera in RotoHog, and maybe a few more in TSN. The differentiation paid off spectacularly, as Cabrera fashioned a complete game 3-hitter in Kansas City. Now, do those select few managers have the cahones to hold him for his next start vs. the Red Sox? Over the past three years, he’s 1-8 vs. Boston with a 6.65 ERA. I think I’d go elsewhere. Then again, I didn’t even have him vs. the Royals.

Trevor Immelman is looking like a one-trick pony this spring. He missed cut the week before his win at the Masters. Since then, he’s missed two more cuts, and then was a last minute withdrawal from this week’s PLAYERS Championship due to “illness”, telling reporters that he needed a few weeks to “decompress.” Sixteen GuruGolf teams had him on their rosters this week, but fortunately, 12 had set up a provisional golfer to handle the surprise.

5/8 - My TSN baseball teams haven’t done so well this season. But yesterday, I had both Joey Votto and Kevin Youkilis on all my teams. That was fun.

On the pitching side, Edinson Volquez and Cliff Lee continued their amazing seasons, each pitching seven innings of shutout ball. Lee’s ERA now stands at 0.81, while Volquez sports a lofty 1.06. Volquez did throw 118 pitches, which seems unnecessary in a game that was already 9-0 after six innings. Chalk it up to Dusty Baker, I guess. Volquez does get an extra day of rest before his next start, so maybe it’s not a big deal. But I really don’t understand the thinking behind the decision to send him out for the 7th inning – even though he had only thrown 93 pitches at that point.

THE PLAYERS Championship is underway. Anthony Kim is the popular GuruGolf favorite, but once again there is no real consensus, as Kim only shows up on only 18% of active rosters, and 126 different golfers appear in at least one foursome.

5/7 - Three starting pitchers combined for 473 TSNP last night, and their combined TSN price ($6.48m) was less than the price of the night’s fourth best starter, Carlos Zambrano. One of the top three, Tim Wakefield, pitched a combined shutout with fellow quadragenarian Mike Timlin. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it marked the first time since 1900 that a team pitched a shutout using multiple pitchers all over the age of 40.

Speaking of old farts, I see that Julio Franco officially retired a few days ago at age 49 after failing to land a spot on a major league roster. In addition to 23 years in the majors, he also had stints in Japan & South Korea, and was currently playing in Mexico. In addition to his long tenure, he was known for using a heavy bat, which he held over his head pointed at the pitcher in his unusual batting stance.

THE PLAYERS Championship tees off tomorrow morning. (Why do they typically capitalize “THE PLAYERS”?) A lot of the golfers in this field also played last week, so this tournament offers an opportunity to conserve or stockpile some trades, if needed.

5/6 - It’s no shocker that on May 6th, the leader in total fantasy points – for both TSN and RotoHog – is Santana. But it is rather shocking that his first name is Ervin. Three of his starts have even been on the road, where he has typically faltered. Make that imploded. Maybe he’s finally shaken off that issue. His next outing will be Sunday at Tampa Bay. The Rays had been the toughest matchup for opposing A.L. starters as recently as a week ago (see 4/29 blurb), but their bats have cooled off lately, so the timing may be good for Santana.

Who knew?

5/5 - I’ve been preoccupied all weekend with several family functions, and have had almost no opportunity to digest whatever has been going on in the sports world. All of my fantasy sports teams have pretty much been on autopilot this weekend – which is usually a good thing. I guess it’s safe to say that in the sporting world, the worst result was attained by Eight Belles. But it’s not at all clear to me who had the best weekend. So I’ll leave it to all of you to sort it all out.

Kudos to big moe, who managed to card the top GuruGolf score this weekend, while worst ball honors go to Cyberwahoo6. Special mention should go to team Liters2, who ranked 4th overall in best ball scoring and also third in worst ball scoring. Not surprisingly, that team is also ranked first in the full season best ball standings.

5/1 - It was a good day to own hitters on the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Pirates. Those three teams combined for 45 runs, although there were a few other games with big run totals as well. Meanwhile, early season phenom Cliff Lee notched his fifth win, although less impressively than wins 1-4, as he allowed 8 hits and 3 runs over six innings.

There really is no dominant favorite in GuruGolf this week. Luke Donald appears on the most rosters, but only about 18%, and 121 different golfers have found their way onto at least one GuruGolf foursome. Diversity reigns supreme.

I’m getting ready to head up to Boston for my son’s college graduation, so I’ll be skipping tomorrow’s blurb. Back Monday.

4/30 - Johnny Cueto, welcome to the major leagues.

Rafael Betancourt, welcome to c-losing in Cleveland.

Well, at least I didn’t have both of them on the same team anywhere. But I did have each of them somewhere. Ugh. On the bright side, at least I’m not Roger Clemens.

The big hitter last night was Scott Hairston, with 2 homers, 3 runs, and 3 RBIs. He now has a total of 137 TSNP for the season, and yet 132% of those fantasy points came in just four games. From April 1-3, he racked up 104 TSNP. Since then (until last night), he appeared in 21 games, hitting .132 over that span, with 2 runs scored and 3 RBIs. And then last night’s outburst. Consider that before rushing to pick him up.

The Wachovia Championship tees off early tomorrow morning. A lot of GuruGolf teams still have roster adjustments to make. Don’t forget!

4/29 - The NBA East supposedly lacked depth, and the Celtics and Pistons were supposedly the two best teams by a longshot, destined to play for the Eastern Conference title, and each capable of winning it all. But so far, they are each knotted at 2-2, turning each series into a best of three. It still seems likely that they’ll both survive. But neither series would have been expected to last 6 or 7 games.

The first month of the baseball season is almost over (or maybe it is over, since the season really started on March 25). So while there is plenty of time for turnarounds, some trends have started to gain some stability. And one of those relates to the best matchups for opposing starters. Using either TSN or RotoHog scoring, Washington and San Francisco seem to have the early lead. Both teams are allowing opposing starters to average more than 60 TSNP per start, and both are allowing opposing starters to average more than 5 RHP per IP. To put those averages into perspective, last year (2007), no team allowed opposing starters to average more than 50 TSNP/G, and no team allowed more than 3.7 RHP/IP. So maybe this year’s outliers will still come back to the pack. But you could do a lot worse than simply picking up anyone who faces the Nats or the Giants – at least so far.

While neither S.F. or Washington seems like a surprise at that end of the rankings, the toughest team to face does surprise me. It’s not even an American League team. Check out the current rankings (scroll to the bottom). The top four are all N.L. teams: Arizona, the Cubs, Atlanta, and the Mets. And the toughest A.L. team for opposing starters has been Tampa Bay. Who knew!?

By the way, I can’t resist pointing out that you won’t find those stats on either the TSN or RotoHog game sites.

4/28 - If the Shaq and Kidd trades were countermeasures to the Lakers acquisition of Gasol, it looks like they’ll fall short of the objective. Both Phoenix and Dallas now go on the road down 3-1. I guess Shawn Marion had to be moved anyway, but do you think the Mavs might rather have Devin Harris back right about now?

In GuruGolf, kudos to the Medford Mustangs with the top bestball score of -41. On the worst ball side, downward dog surged to the tourney best +55 on the strength of a final round +19.

Johnny Cueto got the early-April hype, but teammate Edinson Volquez has actually blown him away for the first month of the season. Volquez notched his 4th win yesterday, and sports an ERA of 1.23 with an identical WHIP. Cueto, meanwhile, has come back to earth after his quick start out of the gate, with a record of only 1-2 and an ERA of 4.05. Cueto’s WHIP is still a gaudy 0.87, but that’s still getting a significant benefit from his opening one-hit outing. Cueto is still regarded as having better stuff, but Volquez has had the better results so far.

Weather could be a baseball factor today, with steady rains forecast in the northeast for the next two days. The Mets are at home tonight (Santana on the mound vs. Pitt), and the Red Sox start a home series tomorrow (vs. Toronto). Rain could also impact some games in the midwest today (NYY@Cle, Bal@CWS, and Cin@StL). If players from any of those teams factor into your plans, be prepared for delays or postponements.

4/25 - Cliff Lee? Who knew?

Or as Gurupie Dave R said to me this morning, “Who does he think he is, Whitey Ford?”

Actually, I doubt if Whitey Ford ever sported an ERA of 0.28, and a WHIP of 0.41. If you’ve got him, enjoy the ride. In the five RIBC leagues, he was completely undrafted. Kudos if you nabbed him off the free agent list early on. As a Tribe fan, I hope he continues. As a realist, I figure there’s a mean reversion coming sooner than later. And if he really reverts to his mean, it will be very mean. His ERA over the past three years was 4.52, and his WHIP was 1.35.

Chase Utley is doing to the hitting field what Lee is doing to the pitchers. He’s got almost 100 TSNP more than the second ranked hitter (Hanley Ramirez). And among second baseman, he’s 75% ahead of #2 (Dustin Pedroia). But even he hasn’t amassed as many fantasy points as Lee.

4/24 - Detroit erupted for 19 runs against Texas last night. After surrendering 14 hits and 10 walks, Texas manager Ron Washington commented that they “threw too many pitches over the plate” – which seems like a curious remark after walking 10 batters.

In GuruGolf, the popular favorite this week is Justin Leonard, on almost 42% of all foursomes. He was also the most widely owned golfer last week, but his ownership is up 50% since then. This week’s runnerup, Briny Baird, is only on half as many teams.

By the way, I still haven’t sent out emails to the prize winners for the first GuruGolf contests. I’ve just been preoccupied with other things. I’ll try to get those out in the next week. Thanks for your patience.

4/23 - Gabe Gross had an interesting night. In the bottom of the 12th, he walked, stole second, and scored the winning run for Milwaukee. And then he was promptly informed that he had been traded to Tampa Bay. I guess that’s one way to leave on a high note.

Gross had the opportunity for his extra inning heroics because closer Eric Gagne racked up his major league leading 4th blown save. To be fair, he also leads the majors in save opportunities (10). But with an 8.31 ERA and a WHIP in excess of 1.60, you wonder why the Brewers would want to bring him into a save situation.

The EDS Byron Nelson Championship tees off tomorrow morning. The highest ranked entrant (in the World Golf Rankings) is Adam Scott at #10, but the field does include 30 golfers with 4-digit GuruGolf prices, so there’s plenty of recognizable names to choose from. Get your lineups set!

4/22 - Some things just never seem to change from year to year. For example, Ben Sheets has gotten off to a hot start this year, and actually ranks #1 in total fantasy points for both TSN and RotoHog. And – as usual - he’ll miss his next scheduled start due to a sore triceps. This doesn’t sound like a serious, longer-term problem. But with Sheets, it’s hard to discount any ache or pain.

On the hitting side, Chase Utley has surged into the early point lead on the strength of six home runs over the past 5 days. He was my first round pick (and #6 overall) in the RIBC draft this year, and so far, so good.

But it’s too early to celebrate and it’s too early to lapse into despair. It’s only April 22. The season is only 12% complete. Boston doesn’t have a corner on the Marathon market. Fantasy baseball is one, too.

4/21 - If the place looks a little different, it’s because I resequenced the left menu to put baseball on top, now that the NBA regular season is over. But before I put hoops in moth balls, I should pass along congrats to a few champions:

  • Mike D, who won a fiercely contested RIHC, becoming the first two-time winner of that league. (He also won in 2005-06.)
  • dpr, who won the TSN Ultimate Hoops championship
  • tothreeball, who claimed the title in the RotoHog NBASE game.
It’s no coincidence that the winners of the two salary cap games were both active users of the RotoGuru site – and that the leaderboards of both games are peppered with regular Gurupies. You don’t absolutely need to use this site to excel in those games. But it must help, as year after year, the dominant players in both games always seem to be recognizable names around here.

In GuruGolf, Bo Weekley found his way onto 36 teams last weekend. Sadly, none were mine. Congrats to Kyllo with the top bestball score of -48, and to Concho Valley Forgers, whose +51 topped the worst ball scoring.

Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

2008: April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2007: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2006: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2005: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2004: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2003: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2002: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2001: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

2000: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

1999: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

1998: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March


RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is not employed by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to Guru<davehall@rotoguru2.com>.

 
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