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Football: The True Value of a Trade

Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024 Oct 26th 10:44 AM
Building on what Guru said today-we only get 4 trades a week. And I see all these posts-should i dump Westbrook for Bruce, should I dump Levens for S. Davis, yada yada yada yada. Well---I wanted to try and make folks look at the bigger picture. I'm going to break it down by position.

Let me start with WR. Ive said this before Ill say it again---it only takes 1 big play for 200 points. That's how Hakim can get 700 points in 1 game. Did we know it was going to happen? no. Now matchups are important and you can see the 'matchups vs. money' thread to see who the scary corners in the league that are good rules of thumb to avoid(thanks Lilly). But the reality is one person slips, trips, misses a tackle and BAM-your WR has a big game. So my advice with WR is to get the 3 best you believe in. And stick with them unless you see something you like/dont like. But dont constantly move receivers just because of matchups or so and so had a big game.

RB-Is a much more likely position to move based on matchups. Bad defenses(Cleveland) give up big running games, good ones(Tampa Bay) shut it down. So it does pay to rotate RB's based on matchups. But there are exceptions. Don't jump ship on a RB just because they play Tampa or San Diego(see D. levens)- you hae to dig deeper than the numbers and evaluate the matchups on the field and how you think the game will play out-hi score, low score, home, away, etc...

QB-I think there is some merit in rotating QB's for matchups but I wouldn't get Kordell Stewart in week 9 since they are playing San Fran. Stick with the elite QB's and don't panic when they play a good team. The best QB's rise to the occasion in big games(Favre against Tampa)

TE-I think it's simple. Buy the tight end you think will do the best and stay with them. Tight end just doesn't generate enough points to waste trades each week on last week's hot player. I got Freddie Jones in week 2 and although he ain't the greatest-he's been doing well the last two weeks. I MIGHT make 1 more trade at tight end-but that would be it.

KR-I see a little different. I've said it before-get a player who will touch the ball a lot and stay with him. Now I would not advocate wasting trades here either but some of the best still have bye weeks coming up. If you have one of those players-sit with him until then and then switch to a player you can hold for the rest of the year,

In closing-if you have trades I would use them at the following positions in this order. This would be the best way to use your trades wisely.

RB
Defense
QB
WR
KR
TE
K

BF Dead
User ID: 7789183 Oct 26th 10:58 AM
BAS, Thanks for your well thought out analysis. I disagree with only one thing, in that I feel that picking your defense is the most important trade. I think that, for the most part, defense is evaluated & traded each week. It can be, and often is, the biggest point maker on your team.

Swami
User ID: 8360413 Oct 26th 11:02 AM
I couldn't agree more, except for the KR. I have Ismail and even though there is better, I doubt I will move him for the rest of the season.

With the defense having the potential to produce a massive amount of points this season, that should be the most important position to have the best matchups in. I don't think I have held a team's defense for more than a week yet. You have to hit the 300pt mark with your defense, otherwise you risk falling behind the leaders.

RB is the next position I would make sure I had the best matchups at. You are very correct in saying a defense can completely shut down a running game. There is no Terrell Davis this year, i.e., a guy you start no matter what. When San Diego was shutting running games down last year, Terrell racked up solid numbers. There is no dominant player thus far, although Marshall Faulk is making a strong case for it.

This year's game is much better than last year's was. With all the injuries, it is forcing teams to make decisions on players rather than locking in Favre, Cunningham, Davis, etc and coasting to a title. The leaders can be caught as there will be all kinds of players on each team. I'm a ways back, but after a 2600pt week last week, I feel like I have a chance to hit triple digits and maybe higher. Good post BAS

Richard
User ID: 0449874 Oct 26th 11:06 AM
Great summary BAS. For my own trading, I look at defense first, although I'm tempted to hold Jacksonville forever, then I look at filling the voids left by players coming into their bye week. I fully agree that timing the "market" for a WR is very tough. The WR position is very volatile so it makes timing a big game difficult. In that situation, it is better to buy quality and hold on, just like you stated.

Richard

Pikentrout
User ID: 0687174 Oct 26th 11:17 AM
Excellent commentary

Most useful for decision making on trades

I am still trading for money (current at 14518 pts and $79,130)...but also with the idea of picking a player up who will perform during the next upcoming week (if the matchup looks promising) and usually with the event of a bye coming the next week

I also try to keep two trades for the pre-repricing gains and matchups.

This week I only have one player who have a bye...trade em for Mare before reprice and keep for the remainder of the year.

Chirality
User ID: 9070813 Oct 26th 11:58 AM
Way to go, BAS. I agree with BF Dead and Swami, though, in that defense should take #1 priority. Their point potential is just higher, that's all. Keep up the good work and the insightful posts.

Chirality

Lillypeutian
User ID: 2156654 Oct 26th 12:32 PM

I agree, BAS. Both RB and defense need to be traded often based on matchups. I would be more inclined to disagree on the next two. I think the QB position is much less likely to be traded than the WR position. Right now, there are six QBs that are basically interchangeable: Warner, George, Manning, Favre, Johnson, Bledsoe. On a week to week basis, if you have two of them, you normally won't differentiate more than 100 points than the next guy. (gal) However, the variance at WR is much greater, even among the top tier, because of matchups. I wouldn't consider holding Harrison this week against the Cowboys, because of Deion.

The next question is whether you can assign a point value to a trade. Right now, I don't trade unless I think it is worth 100 points or more. Obviously, it is impossible to assure 100 points out of each trade, but it's as good a place to start as any, I suppose.

walk
User ID: 9063723 Oct 26th 1:17 PM
Great thread. Thanks BAS for the commentary. I agree that defense ought to be the #1 priority followed by RB. I am also interested in Lilly's thoughts on WR -- namely, that some might not tend to perform well when faced with an elite CB (such as Deion). Thanks again,

- walk

Chirality
User ID: 9070813 Oct 26th 1:23 PM
Boy, I can't wait to see DAL play my Vikes. Moss covered by Deion...what a matchup!

Chirality

Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024 Oct 26th 1:41 PM
Several of you have mentioned that defense should come before RB. I can't say I disagree with that. I was looking at it by number of trades. I am often making at least one if not two moves a week at RB right now, defense and then maybe a WR or QB depending on matchups. The rest is pretty much settled unless bye week, injury, or I'm totally fed up with the players at KR, TE, or K.

Looking at defense closer, i think it is harder to predict than RB. For example, who had Green Bay last week? No one, yet they scored the best. Now St. Louis was the favorite and they did score better than the average. I think it is wise to change defense each week but over the long term, how many points is it benefiting you versus getting a good defense and staying put? My point is defense is not as significant as it was last year. BUT still a very HIGH priority to trade. I would put RB and defense 1 and 2. You all can pick the order.

Lilly-I still say QB before receiver. I'm not afraid to keep Harrison against Dallas. One big play is all it takes for a respectable game. And who is more worthy than Harrison that I don't already have? It's only 1 trade to dump Harrison but it is TWO trades to get him back. you said each trade should be at least worth 100 points. So is it worth 200 points to dump Harrison and go into say...Raghib Ismail this week? My opinion is no. I think there are better ways to use the trades.

Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 1021194 Oct 26th 8:53 PM
Taking this thread into consideration---if you have one trade to use on Manning or Harrison for this week. Which one is more important to trade and why?

Answers to an interesting question?

man
User ID: 0422394 Oct 26th 11:42 PM
BAS, I just want to voice my support again for downplaying (just a little), as you have, the importance of D. My feeling is that ANY of the first four in your list can be the smartest trade in a given week, depending on just how good the matchup is.

Chirality
User ID: 9070813 Oct 27th 0:09 AM
BAS--

There's a big upside to defensive juggling that I haven't heard mentioned--dollars. Just about everyone is swapping D's by the week so it's easy to follow the crowd and make half a mil a week. That's not always the case with other positions as there are more possible big performers.

Chirality

barfly
User ID: 0269124 Oct 27th 2:18 AM
I like your take about sticking with players. most of the mistakes I've made in smallworld games is jumping off a player after a cold game. Last year I dumped Moss after a couple mediocre games and ended up kicking myself when he hit the jackpot.

Valkyrie
User ID: 7998213 Oct 27th 10:14 AM
Great thread and great analysis. My only contribution would be that each person has a different need for diversity. Are you trying to get a respectable score, win your league, or win overall? Me, I am just trying to catch Lilly since I know he's at the top (G and only 300 points ahead of me). For me I think this primarily affects my defensive choice. It is very easy to follow the herd and pick up $ with defensive selection but very hard to gain ground with this strategy. I would also like to point out that this is probably an aberrational year with so many productive low priced players the need for capital accumulation ended early for most of us.
That said I picked up Quadry for the extra $ which I don't need when I really believe Williams or even Dwight will outperform him. Old habits die hard. Lilly I have the momentum you better look back as well as forward!

Roy
User ID: 9836983 Oct 27th 11:55 AM
Great thread! I have only 1 thing to add on the Harrison vs. Sanders matchup this weekend.

Marvin comes out a lot in the slot and moves around in multiple formations. Deion doesn't flip coverage, he's left handed and always plays right corner. If the Cowboys flip Deion from side to side, it will be only the 2nd time since he joined the Cowboys they've used this technique.

I doubt that they will do that since he is still having some problems with that turf toe and hurting from getting his bell rung against Washington.

I'm keeping Marvin and hoping he doesn't kill Kevin Smith or the 3rd CB from the slot position (lots of yards, no TDs).

BillB
User ID: 0060104 Oct 27th 12:27 PM
BAS-I haven't seen an answer to your question above, but if I HAVE TO make that trade I'd dump Harrison...Peyton should have a good day at home and he has a pretty good O-line to protect him. I feel that Indy will use Edgerrin creatively which should open up passing lanes to Marvin or E.G. (is he playing?)

Peyton with a 300+ day a better bet than Harrison with a 200+ day...

(personally, I have both and am keeping both!!! -ROFL!!!)

Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024 Oct 27th 4:35 PM
My theory looks to be very true. I've seen ten trades made in the last three hours now that trades have been given. Here's where they were made...

6 RB
3 Defense
1 WR

thats a managers' priority right now.

Beta Alpha Sigma User ID: 0750024	Oct 26th 10:44 AM Building on what Guru said today-we only get 4 trades a week. And I see all these posts-should i dump Westbrook for Bruce, should I dump Levens for S. Davis, yada yada yada yada. Well---I wanted to try and make folks look at the bigger picture. I'm going to break it down by position. Let me start with WR. Ive said this before Ill say it again---it only takes 1 big play for 200 points. That's how Hakim can get 700 points in 1 game. Did we know it was going to happen? no. Now matchups are important and you can see the 'matchups vs. money' thread to see who the scary corners in the league that are good rules of thumb to avoid(thanks Lilly). But the reality is one person slips, trips, misses a tackle and BAM-your WR has a big game. So my advice with WR is to get the 3 best you believe in. And stick with them unless you see something you like/dont like. But dont constantly move receivers just because of matchups or so and so had a big game. RB-Is a much more likely position to move based on matchups. Bad defenses(Cleveland) give up big running games, good ones(Tampa Bay) shut it down. So it does pay to rotate RB's based on matchups. But there are exceptions. Don't jump ship on a RB just because they play Tampa or San Diego(see D. levens)- you hae to dig deeper than the numbers and evaluate the matchups on the field and how you think the game will play out-hi score, low score, home, away, etc... QB-I think there is some merit in rotating QB's for matchups but I wouldn't get Kordell Stewart in week 9 since they are playing San Fran. Stick with the elite QB's and don't panic when they play a good team. The best QB's rise to the occasion in big games(Favre against Tampa) TE-I think it's simple. Buy the tight end you think will do the best and stay with them. Tight end just doesn't generate enough points to waste trades each week on last week's hot player. I got Freddie Jones in week 2 and although he ain't the greatest-he's been doing well the last two weeks. I MIGHT make 1 more trade at tight end-but that would be it. KR-I see a little different. I've said it before-get a player who will touch the ball a lot and stay with him. Now I would not advocate wasting trades here either but some of the best still have bye weeks coming up. If you have one of those players-sit with him until then and then switch to a player you can hold for the rest of the year, In closing-if you have trades I would use them at the following positions in this order. This would be the best way to use your trades wisely. RB Defense QB WR KR TE K
BF Dead User ID: 7789183	Oct 26th 10:58 AM BAS, Thanks for your well thought out analysis. I disagree with only one thing, in that I feel that picking your defense is the most important trade. I think that, for the most part, defense is evaluated & traded each week. It can be, and often is, the biggest point maker on your team.
Swami User ID: 8360413	Oct 26th 11:02 AM I couldn't agree more, except for the KR. I have Ismail and even though there is better, I doubt I will move him for the rest of the season. With the defense having the potential to produce a massive amount of points this season, that should be the most important position to have the best matchups in. I don't think I have held a team's defense for more than a week yet. You have to hit the 300pt mark with your defense, otherwise you risk falling behind the leaders. RB is the next position I would make sure I had the best matchups at. You are very correct in saying a defense can completely shut down a running game. There is no Terrell Davis this year, i.e., a guy you start no matter what. When San Diego was shutting running games down last year, Terrell racked up solid numbers. There is no dominant player thus far, although Marshall Faulk is making a strong case for it. This year's game is much better than last year's was. With all the injuries, it is forcing teams to make decisions on players rather than locking in Favre, Cunningham, Davis, etc and coasting to a title. The leaders can be caught as there will be all kinds of players on each team. I'm a ways back, but after a 2600pt week last week, I feel like I have a chance to hit triple digits and maybe higher. Good post BAS
Richard User ID: 0449874	Oct 26th 11:06 AM Great summary BAS. For my own trading, I look at defense first, although I'm tempted to hold Jacksonville forever, then I look at filling the voids left by players coming into their bye week. I fully agree that timing the "market" for a WR is very tough. The WR position is very volatile so it makes timing a big game difficult. In that situation, it is better to buy quality and hold on, just like you stated. Richard
Pikentrout User ID: 0687174	Oct 26th 11:17 AM Excellent commentary Most useful for decision making on trades I am still trading for money (current at 14518 pts and $79,130)...but also with the idea of picking a player up who will perform during the next upcoming week (if the matchup looks promising) and usually with the event of a bye coming the next week I also try to keep two trades for the pre-repricing gains and matchups. This week I only have one player who have a bye...trade em for Mare before reprice and keep for the remainder of the year.
Chirality User ID: 9070813	Oct 26th 11:58 AM Way to go, BAS. I agree with BF Dead and Swami, though, in that defense should take #1 priority. Their point potential is just higher, that's all. Keep up the good work and the insightful posts. Chirality
Lillypeutian User ID: 2156654	Oct 26th 12:32 PM I agree, BAS. Both RB and defense need to be traded often based on matchups. I would be more inclined to disagree on the next two. I think the QB position is much less likely to be traded than the WR position. Right now, there are six QBs that are basically interchangeable: Warner, George, Manning, Favre, Johnson, Bledsoe. On a week to week basis, if you have two of them, you normally won't differentiate more than 100 points than the next guy. (gal) However, the variance at WR is much greater, even among the top tier, because of matchups. I wouldn't consider holding Harrison this week against the Cowboys, because of Deion. The next question is whether you can assign a point value to a trade. Right now, I don't trade unless I think it is worth 100 points or more. Obviously, it is impossible to assure 100 points out of each trade, but it's as good a place to start as any, I suppose.
walk User ID: 9063723	Oct 26th 1:17 PM Great thread. Thanks BAS for the commentary. I agree that defense ought to be the #1 priority followed by RB. I am also interested in Lilly's thoughts on WR -- namely, that some might not tend to perform well when faced with an elite CB (such as Deion). Thanks again, - walk
Chirality User ID: 9070813	Oct 26th 1:23 PM Boy, I can't wait to see DAL play my Vikes. Moss covered by Deion...what a matchup! Chirality
Beta Alpha Sigma User ID: 0750024	Oct 26th 1:41 PM Several of you have mentioned that defense should come before RB. I can't say I disagree with that. I was looking at it by number of trades. I am often making at least one if not two moves a week at RB right now, defense and then maybe a WR or QB depending on matchups. The rest is pretty much settled unless bye week, injury, or I'm totally fed up with the players at KR, TE, or K. Looking at defense closer, i think it is harder to predict than RB. For example, who had Green Bay last week? No one, yet they scored the best. Now St. Louis was the favorite and they did score better than the average. I think it is wise to change defense each week but over the long term, how many points is it benefiting you versus getting a good defense and staying put? My point is defense is not as significant as it was last year. BUT still a very HIGH priority to trade. I would put RB and defense 1 and 2. You all can pick the order. Lilly-I still say QB before receiver. I'm not afraid to keep Harrison against Dallas. One big play is all it takes for a respectable game. And who is more worthy than Harrison that I don't already have? It's only 1 trade to dump Harrison but it is TWO trades to get him back. you said each trade should be at least worth 100 points. So is it worth 200 points to dump Harrison and go into say...Raghib Ismail this week? My opinion is no. I think there are better ways to use the trades.
Beta Alpha Sigma User ID: 1021194	Oct 26th 8:53 PM Taking this thread into consideration---if you have one trade to use on Manning or Harrison for this week. Which one is more important to trade and why? Answers to an interesting question?
man User ID: 0422394	Oct 26th 11:42 PM BAS, I just want to voice my support again for downplaying (just a little), as you have, the importance of D. My feeling is that ANY of the first four in your list can be the smartest trade in a given week, depending on just how good the matchup is.
Chirality User ID: 9070813	Oct 27th 0:09 AM BAS-- There's a big upside to defensive juggling that I haven't heard mentioned--dollars. Just about everyone is swapping D's by the week so it's easy to follow the crowd and make half a mil a week. That's not always the case with other positions as there are more possible big performers. Chirality
barfly User ID: 0269124	Oct 27th 2:18 AM I like your take about sticking with players. most of the mistakes I've made in smallworld games is jumping off a player after a cold game. Last year I dumped Moss after a couple mediocre games and ended up kicking myself when he hit the jackpot.
Valkyrie User ID: 7998213	Oct 27th 10:14 AM Great thread and great analysis. My only contribution would be that each person has a different need for diversity. Are you trying to get a respectable score, win your league, or win overall? Me, I am just trying to catch Lilly since I know he's at the top (G and only 300 points ahead of me). For me I think this primarily affects my defensive choice. It is very easy to follow the herd and pick up $ with defensive selection but very hard to gain ground with this strategy. I would also like to point out that this is probably an aberrational year with so many productive low priced players the need for capital accumulation ended early for most of us. That said I picked up Quadry for the extra $ which I don't need when I really believe Williams or even Dwight will outperform him. Old habits die hard. Lilly I have the momentum you better look back as well as forward!
Roy User ID: 9836983	Oct 27th 11:55 AM Great thread! I have only 1 thing to add on the Harrison vs. Sanders matchup this weekend. Marvin comes out a lot in the slot and moves around in multiple formations. Deion doesn't flip coverage, he's left handed and always plays right corner. If the Cowboys flip Deion from side to side, it will be only the 2nd time since he joined the Cowboys they've used this technique. I doubt that they will do that since he is still having some problems with that turf toe and hurting from getting his bell rung against Washington. I'm keeping Marvin and hoping he doesn't kill Kevin Smith or the 3rd CB from the slot position (lots of yards, no TDs).
BillB User ID: 0060104	Oct 27th 12:27 PM BAS-I haven't seen an answer to your question above, but if I HAVE TO make that trade I'd dump Harrison...Peyton should have a good day at home and he has a pretty good O-line to protect him. I feel that Indy will use Edgerrin creatively which should open up passing lanes to Marvin or E.G. (is he playing?) Peyton with a 300+ day a better bet than Harrison with a 200+ day... (personally, I have both and am keeping both!!! -ROFL!!!)
Beta Alpha Sigma User ID: 0750024	Oct 27th 4:35 PM My theory looks to be very true. I've seen ten trades made in the last three hours now that trades have been given. Here's where they were made... 6 RB 3 Defense 1 WR thats a managers' priority right now.