
Message Forum "Keepers"
Football: WR/CB Matchups
Lillypeutian
User ID: 2156654
Oct 26th 2:08 PM
In another thread, Walk asked me to reiterate my opinions regarding cornerbacks to avoid. So without further ado, allow me to expound.
First, let us list the top cornerbacks in the league. (Listed in order with the best at the top)
1. Deion Sanders Dal
2. Charles Woodson Oak
3. Aeneas Williams Ari
4. Sam Madison Mia
5. Bobby Taylor Phi
6. Dale Carter Den
7. Sam Vincent (injured) Phi
There are a few other cornerbacks in the league that are good, but not good enough to alter trading plans for stud WRs. These include: Ty Law NE, Shawn Springs Sea, Champ Bailey Wash, Phillipi Sparks and Jason Sehorn NYG, Ray Buchanan ATL, and James Hasty KC. This second list is useful if you are considering a second-tier WR.
Normally these players will cover the Top WR one on one IF the WR is good enough to change the plan of the defense. Likewise, most offenses also have plays designed to mismatch their top receiver against someone other than the stud cornerback. However, there are usually no more than 4 or 5 plays designed to free up the stud receiver, so the matchup issue remains valid.
On this list, there are only two corners that have the size or leaping ability to match up vs. the taller receivers such as Randy Moss or Keyshawn Johnson. Those corners are Deion and Bobby Taylor. The other corners may actually make the matchup more attractive because these teams will attempt to cover one on one but can't.
Last week, Moss faced a SF secondary determined to stop him by double teaming him. They did, and got burned by everyone else. Miami tried this vs Terry Glenn and fared pretty well. It is difficult to predict whether that will happen or not, therefore I don't recommend changing your gameplan unless you are ABSOLUTELY sure the gameplan of the opponent is to stop the stud WR.
The other thing to keep in mind is to avoid trading away a first-tier WR with a bad matchup for a second-tier WR with an OK matchup. For example, I recommend trading Marvin Harrison this week because he will be up against Deion. Don't trade him for Kevin Johnson, though.
Now, here is a list of first-tier WRs: (no order)
Moss
Freeman
R. Ismail
Westbrook (maybe, I actually like Connell better)
Rob Moore (injured)
Bruce
Owens (injured)
Mathis (if Chandler is healthy)
Muhammed
Glenn
T. Martin
K. Johnson
Moulds (injured)
Harrison
Thigpen
J. Smith
McCaffrey
Galloway (holdout)
Alexander
I think you could even have a 1A class which is limited to Moss, Freeman, Owens, Glenn, Harrison, K. Johnson, Moulds, and Bruce.
I cannot underestimate the importance of looking at this matchup before trading for a receiver. It could make or break you. I saw two teams in the Top 50 that had Westbrook but not Harrison. That is a 300 point swing.
I probably have more on this topic, but I just drew a blank so I will wait for comments to stir up the soup.
Eric
User ID: 9600383
Oct 26th 2:46 PM
Lilly, thanks for the nice essay. First of all I want to correct you - it's Troy Vincent (not Sam) - no big deal though. Anyway I agree with your list of players and analysis for the most part. I usually don't post long messages but here it goes:
WR selection is probably the most crucial position to analyze due to the volatility in points from week to week. The other thing to be aware of when choosing WR's for matchups is the opposing team's safeties (and overall secondary performance). For example, the Eagles not only have two of the top corners, but safety Brian Dawkins is becoming a tremendous player. He helps out on coverage a lot. Also, a couple of teams have one great corner, but the rest of the secondary is average or subpar. Teams like Arizona and New England come to mind at first. This means that the stud receivers can still get some decent points against these teams (especially if they have the height advantage over the corner).
Actually there are many other things you could look at for predicting WR performance. His own defense, the other wideouts, TE, and QB production are also good gauges. I think some of these issues were already touched upon earlier in the thread that is in the "Forum Keepers" section. Well, that's basically my contribution. We need more threads like this with hardcore football discussion.
Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024
Oct 26th 3:02 PM
We got a couple potential hall of fame threads on the board right now.
I think for a WR to be great he needs his QB. If Peyton goes down-I dump Harrison fast. And I would never get Owens, K. Johnson with Garcia, and Mirer at the helm. You get me Young and Vinny back and I'll think twice.
i strongly disagree with Troy Vincent. He has played great this year BUT he is not an elite CB. Nor is Ray Buchanan anymore.
Also, I think this being overlooked. The great CB's don't ALWAYS cover the #1 receiver. WR's go into the slot, go in motion when a team is playing zone-there are times in every game where the #1 will get a chance to make plays. So keep this is mind. Your priority should be to get great receivers and rest on them. Not to panic when you see certain teams on the schedule.
Lilly's info is solid and should be considered with any trades for WR-regardless of the league.
Richard
User ID: 0449874
Oct 26th 3:10 PM
I'm not sure how this fits in to a discussion about WR/CB matchups, but we are coming down to that ugly part of the year when the weather turns bad. In addition to who is covering whom, don't forget about the weather. Are they playing indoors or outdoors, is it raining, is it snowing, is the ground frozen solid or is it a muddy quagmire? The weather can be,and has been, at least as big a factor as individual WR/CB matchups. Anyone know a good weatherman?
Richard
Lillypeutian
User ID: 1572034
Oct 26th 4:28 PM
BAS, I believe I have covered the issue of the receiver in the "slot". No offensive team will change their entire playbook just to free up one guy. Too much to learn and too many people to learn it. When teams make adjustments, they only adjust 5 to 7 plays. Now they could just switch assignments, switching the 3rd receiver with the 1st receiver. But that causes other problems such as the 3rd receiver running patterns that are more conducive to injury. Terry Glenn is a good example of a guy that gets thrown into the 3rd receiver slot often. He gets hurt often because the safeties are teeing off on him. Guys like Bruce and Moss don't get put into those situations, those teams have other receivers to do "the dirty work." This is not a hard and fast rule, but then again, putting your #1 in the slot to avoid the stud CB isn't either.
I firmly believe you either play the odds or play the hunches in this game. If you're playing the odds, you are lessening your chances by matching up against stud CBs. To me, a hunch is taking a less popular receiver vs a porous defense.
One more interesting note: There is a myth that goes around that rain and snow = low scoring. The opposite is true, unless the conditions are so bad as to be unplayable. (See KC-SEA Sunday night last year) The reason is that the offensive team knows where they are going, the defense does not. The defense reacts to the offense. High wind is the worst for an offense because it causes good throws to become errant.
Sam Vincent was a point guard for the Bulls. I don't know why I had him stuck in my head.
(I'm much less combative today, I wonder why.)
biliruben
User ID: 0025534
Oct 27th 11:45 AM
Good info to ponder guys! Thanks.
I am wondering if anyone has bothered to quantify any of this to see who the "elite" CB's really are. For example, I am wondering I should cut Glenn because I think Aeneas Williams will shut down him down this weekend, so I look at the #1 WR on each of his opponents' teams this year:
Week catches Yds receiver
1 3 24 C Johnson
2 4 85 Mcduffie
3 4 59 Owens
4 2 24 Irvin (ismail - 104)
5 5 78 Hilliard
6 3 25 Westbrook (connell - 110)
7 bye
Ave 3.5 49.16666667
Looks like a pretty good, but not great, argument for dropping Glenn (though I won't).
I guess a better measure would be to compare how much less (or more) a WR does compared to his season average, not just look at his raw numbers. 78 yds for Hilliard might be his season high, for all I know. Also, I have no idea who was REALLY covering these guys - was it Aeneas?
MobRules
User ID: 0192094
Oct 28th 10:27 AM
Yeah, Aeneas draws the other teams top stud WR no matter what. Even Amani Toomer who is actually the Giants top receiver (not Hilliard) and who picked up 34 yards on 5 catches against Aeneas. One thing about your comment regarding bad weather, Lilly. While it is true that the offense knows where they're going while the defense must react. The offense does not know where the defense is going, for ex: blitzes or stunts and so the offense to a certain effect is forced to react to the defense's reaction (?) Besides bad weather = wet balls which cause more turnovers and in general sloppy play. Which I love.
Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024
Oct 28th 2:51 PM
Lilly-what are your thoughts on Moss this weekend at Denver? They limited freeman to 1 catch and t. glenn to two catches(granted he got 80 yards). I'm nervous about keeping Moss and Harrison. But dont want to spend two trades on dumping these studs. I will probably only dump one. And leaning towards Westbrook(few people got him right now) and Freeman(same thing).
Would appreciate your anaylsis, especially on the Moss/Carter postential matchup. Its a tough one to call for me. But Moss does have Dallas next too. Dilemmas...
Lillypeutian
User ID: 1062774
Oct 28th 3:13 PM
The Colts are headed toward "the meat" of their schedule, with KC, the Giants, and Philadelphia the next three weeks. The Vikings have Dallas, my Beloved Bears and a bye. I think Moss should be kept until the bye and Harrison traded for three weeks.
No doubt, it is a gamble to trade Harrison at this point. He is every bit as talented as his numbers indicate. It is also a good way to differentiate from the norm. I think the odds are good that Harrison has at least two bad games in the next four, based on that schedule. Not knowing for sure which two will be bad, can you afford to have two bad games out of a stud receiver? I can't.
Now a word on Moss vs Carter. Carter is a bump and run corner. Moss is too big to bump and run. Therefore, I think Moss will have a bigger day than usual vs Denver because Denver will try to play Moss one on one at least some of the time and Moss will burn them. In order to stop Moss, you literally have to take him out of the game through constant double coverage. San Francisco tried that and George lit them up for 40 points. Denver will not do the same.
The real question is: Do you keep Moss vs Deion?
Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024
Oct 28th 4:31 PM
THAT'S DEEP STUFF LILLY---Real deep. Wow-im still thinking. okay-Well if Deion will try and play Moss one on one bump and run-Moss should still be able to beat that as well-don't you think? Deion is great but so is Moss. They're even in speed-but not in height and strength. If you say keep him against Dale Carter-I say keep him against Deion. Where Harrison is much shorter than Moss. (6'5" vs. 6'0")
I dont know if I have the cohones to dump Harrison. ill see if i can muster the energy to try it. Who do you like more for the next three weeks-Freeman or Westbrook? My instincts say Freeman but my little cohones say Westbrook.
thanks for the insight-and on a sidenote-what do you make of the levens game last week sunday? i saw you kept him on your roster. i dumped him thinking seau would own him. if levens would stop fumbling he would have great numbers right now.
Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 0750024
Oct 28th 4:31 PM
THAT'S DEEP STUFF LILLY---Real deep. Wow-im still thinking. okay-Well if Deion will try and play Moss one on one bump and run-Moss should still be able to beat that as well-dont you think? Deion is great but so is Moss. Theyre even in speed-but not in heighth and strength. If you say keep him against Dale Carter-I say keep him against Deion. Where Harrison is much shorter than Moss. (6'5" vs. 6'0")
I dont know if i have the cohones to dump harrison. I'll see if I can muster the energy to try it. Who do you like more for the next three weeks-Freeman or Westbrook? My instincts say Freeman but my little cohones say Westbrook.
Thanks for the insight-and on a sidenote-what do you make of the Levens game last week Sunday? I saw you kept him on your roster. I dumped him thinking Seau would own him. If Levens would stop fumbling he would have great numbers right now.
Lillypeutian
User ID: 9301033
Oct 28th 8:07 PM
BAS, yeah I kept Levens. Two reasons: First, at the time, Stephen Davis was kinda banged up, so I didn't want to risk keeping him. Second, Rodney Harrison was listed as Out on the injury report last week, so I thought Levens probably wasn't worth 2 trades.
Let's go even deeper with this whole Deion bit. I believe Deion Sanders is the best cornerback to ever play the game. Between his talent and his talk, he intimidates his opponents. Coaching staffs have been known to change their entire game plan because of Sanders.
Sanders is also well known for "baiting" QBs...his recovery speed is amazing. He will make it look like the receiver is open to force the QB to throw his way, then break on the ball with that amazing speed. Coaches know this, and beat it into the brain of their QB to be careful throwing in his direction. The last thing these QBs want is to be "outsmarted" by THAT showboat.
I expect Manning to stay away from Deion for almost the entire game. They will try to match Harrison against Kevin Smith as much as possible. He may try to throw there once or twice, but Manning is more interested in winning the football game than proving he is good enough to throw at Sanders.
However, Jeff George doesn't play with the same attitude as Manning. (See where I'm going with this?) And Moss thinks he can win ANY one on one matchup. Deion won't try to bump Moss, but he will be all over Moss. The question is whether Moss can outmuscle Deion and whether Jeff George can throw the ball so only Moss can get it.
I fully expect next week's game to be the most memorable one on one matchup in the history of the NFL. I hope no one gets hurt between now and then.
Beta Alpha Sigma
User ID: 1021194
Oct 28th 9:34 PM
Lilly-Youre right-if and when Harrison gets away from Deion-Dallas will be sure to dedicate two players to Harrison. Peyton has played well so I look for him to really get Dilger, Pollard, James, Wilkins into the passing game. Could be good days for those players at Harrisons expense. If Indy can get Harrison away from Deion double covered and Wilkins man to man on Deion at times, that will leave 1 on 1 matchups for tight ends, RB's. interesting chess match.
As for Moss/Sanders-it should be great. Now when they played Dallas last year-was Deion healthy? I thought he was but i cant remember. it was thanksgiving day. I didnt have Moss that day---it killed me.
Lillypeutian
User ID: 9301033
Oct 29th 1:04 AM
Deion was hurt when they played last year. He was not in uniform. I remember it well, Fox kept panning the sidelines after almost every Minnesota touchdown.
It will be different this year.
Roy
User ID: 9836983
Oct 29th 10:54 AM
Norm H. and Leon S. reported on KLIF talk radio in Dallas this morning that S George Teague and CB Kevin Mathis will not be active this weekend for the Colts game.
Teague is the starting Free Safety, and Mathis has been starting at Kevin Smith's Left Corner and is the 3rd Cornerback in the Nickle defense when Pup is playing LCB.
This may cause some serious problems in coverage if the 'boys try any hybrid schemes to take away starvin Marvin. I look for them to play their standard coverages and let Dion take away one side and double the other WR for the Colts with D. Woodson taking the TE on seam routes.
The only thing that may help the Cowboys is the Colts are having some receiver problems of their own. E.G. Green is still recovering from knee surgery and I don't know how comfortable Manning is with Pathon or Wilkins. Look for double TE formations and a lot of throws to Dilger and Pollard.
On the flip side, look for the Cowboys to deploy a similar offensive scheme as we have a worse problem at WR than the Colts, and they are not know for their defense. The Colts are closer to Washington in performance than Philadelphia or NYG.
Sorry to ramble, but I had a minute, and I really enjoyed the thread, thanks Lillypeutian!
Lillypeutian
User ID: 1062774
Nov 3rd 1:25 AM
Maybe we should consider adding Shawn Springs to the list. He shut down Freeman pretty well Monday and had a couple of picks to boot.