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Go forward to more recent blurbs.

3/31 - Only 182 days remaining in the fantasy baseball season. Hope you got off to a good start yesterday, because there's not much time left to make up for mistakes.

Not.

Today will be a busy day here at RotoGuru World Headquarters. I've got to get the daily baseball statistical processing up and running. Hopefully, I can simply dust off most of last year's routines. The bigger challenge is to get all of the 25-man active rosters coded. If you've used my baseball stats before, you know that one of the most unique and useful features is to track "eligible games" for each player. An eligible game is defined as a game for which a player is on an active MLB roster and eligible to play, regardless of whether he actually appears in a game. By expressing fantasy points as an average per eligible game, we can more appropriately measure the relative performance of hitters vs. pitchers, and of everyday players vs. platoon players. But to do this requires a fair degree of manual tracking, especially at the beginning of the season. That is today's monumental undertaking.

In general, I try to have the previous days baseball stats posted by 9am EST. Once I hit my stride, slightly earlier updates are likely. But for this first week, please give me some latitude to work the kinks out, especially since hoops stats still need to be updated as well.

I resequenced the left menu to put baseball at the top. Based on forum activity, it's clear that baseball is the dominant interest now. Hopefully, by later today, the individual player pages will be coded for the new season, and the sortable stats will reflect this year, rather than last year. The Assimilator will also slim down as inactive players will be removed, cutting the number of listed players approximately in half.

Off to the salt mines!

3/28 - Tim Duncan lead all NBA players with 68 TSNP last night. But he was nosed out as the top overall producer, as Kansas forward Nick Collison managed 68.5 TSNP, on 33 points, 19 boards, 4 assists, 3 blocks, and a steal.

The four #1 seeds are still alive. As a UConn fan, it's good to know that the demise of a #1 seed is due, at least by historical standards. In the 18 years since the tournament has included at least 64 teams, 22 #1 seeds have failed to advance to the regional finals. If this tournament is to keep pace, then either Texas or Oklahoma is in trouble tonight. And if history stays on track, another #1 will drop in the Elite 8. We'll know pretty soon.

Baseball season starts Sunday night. If you plan to have a valid roster for Sunday night, the TSN freeze is at 7pm EST on Sunday. The Swirve and PSC freeze isn't until Monday morning, so filter that Sunday night game out of your plans for those rosters.

3/27 - Usually, by this time in the Hoops season, I'm comfortably out of the running for the top TSN ranking, and comfortably ahead or behind in my various division battles. That has the advantage of allowing me to focus on my (typically slow) start in baseball with my Hoops team running on autopilot. But this year, it looks like I'll have to stay actively engaged in Hoops for a bit longer.

After getting "Branded" last month, I thought the title might have drifted out of reach. But somehow, I'm still in contention - which just goes to show that every team has its share of difficulties. I'm especially pleased to see that 13 of the top 15 TSN Ultimate teams are run by recognized Gurupies. And, with all due humility, I'll bet the other two have at least taken a peek from time to time.

As I mentioned, I'm generally a slow starter - in all TSN sports. I don't know why, because I don't think I draft stupidly. Perhaps I'm simply content to be more patient than many others in the early goings. Regardless, it seldom seems to have a significant long-term cost. My top TSN Hoops team this year was ranked #330 at the beginning of December, 600 TSNP out of the lead, with a reasonably competitive roster value but only 2 trades in the bank. By January 1, my WWR rank had climbed to 66 (400 TSNP out of 1st), and my stash of trades had swelled to 11. Looks like December was a good month, gaining 200 TSNP on the top spot while conserving a boatload of trades. The same pattern often happens in baseball, when mid-May through mid-June generally makes or breaks my campaign. So if you get off to a slow start, as I usually do, don't despair. Have a plan, and stick with it. Sure, luck is involved - a few ill timed injuries (or getting "Ramoned" in baseball) can always thwart the soundest of plans - but over a long stretch, the luck factor usually evens out.

Allow me to digress. I just typed "Ramoned" into Google. RotoGuru.com popped up in the third site listing, behind two sites that appear to be Spanish. It's always fun to Google a term that's been coined at this site (Randro was another good example). Someone recently mentioned that they used Google to find references for "guru rotation". The search filters at the forum can also do that, although Google also considers blurb archives and essays. So don't forget to use Google as a resource if you're trying to sift through the site archives.

3/26 - It's time to get serious about putting together my TSN, Swirve, and PSC baseball rosters. My baseball energies have thus far been spent on several roto drafts, and on simply getting the data up on the site. But we're now 4 days away from opening day. The first freeze for TSN is on Sunday, and the first freeze for the other two games is on Monday (as they ignore the Sunday night opener).

There are some rules changes in each of the three covered games. Pay attention, because they might influence the setup of your initial rosters.

• TSN: This year's version offers a DH slot, and only three OF slots. In addition, some players are eligible at more than one position. So hitting management will offer much more flexibility. If there are two hot first basemen, you don't necessarily have to choose only one.
• Swirve: Pitching contracts will be a minimum of 10 days long. In addition, you cannot terminate a contract within its final 10 days. This will change the optimal approach to managing starting pitchers, as you'll effectively need to hold any starter for at least 3 starts.
• PSC: The roster size has been expanded from 20 to 24 slots - almost the size of a full MLB squad. If you play the "free" game, you only get 5 free trades per week. That not even enough to allow you to rotate your entire starting staff. The one-price game offers 225 trades for the entire season - about 9 per week. Cash prizes have been increased.

3/25 - The baseball season opens today with its first postponement of the year. What drama!

The unlikeliest triple-double of the season (so far, at least) came from Denver's Rodney White. Go figure.

I made a few enhancements to the Market Madness standings. You can now select to see only the GuruPatron standings (which is significant for merchandise prizes). Hopefully, I found most of the GuruPatron entries, but if you notice any errors or omissions, please let me know. I also added notes on the scoring recap page which identifies the teams that are included in each basket unit. Hopefully, this will help the casual fans to keep track of their rooting interests.

3/24 - With 75% of the tournament games now in the bank, you might think that the Market Madness standings would be sifting the likely winners to the top. Not so fast. The big points come in the Elite 8 round, especially if a significant underdog advances to the Final Four. There is a Final Four bonus of 10xseed, so a Butler advance would generate a 120 point bonus. Maybe Butler seems like a long shot, but there are teams seeded 5-7 that could still advance. Those are the picks - especially if levered by the appropriate conference and seed baskets - that can dramatically shift the standings. And most of the leading entries still have significant short-side exposure to highly seeded teams. Expect significant volatility in both directions.

The PROFL Expert League baseball draft concluded yesterday. I've updated a roster grid which reflects the draft results plus a few trades made during the draft. Team RotoGuru looks well positioned to compete, with very strong pitching and respectable hitting. There are some possible trades being discussed as well, so these rosters may not remain this way until opening day. And opening day is now less than a week away! Aye carumba! (Given my state of unpreparedness, I'm sure glad it's not tomorrow.)

I think I have all player updates for the TSN, Swirve, and PSC games now available in the sortable stats and the Assimilator(s). Some team affiliations may still be a bit stale, however. If you notice anything amiss, please let me know.

3/21 - But for a few last second heroics and/or calls, there could have been more upsets yesterday. As it was, 3 upsets in the opening 16 games is rather tame. And I doubt if many Final Four picks have gone by the wayside yet, so hope still abounds.

As far as I know, the Market Madness site performed without a hitch yesterday. Game registrations were down slightly this year, I'm sure in part because I never got around to promoting it much, or even sending out reminder notices to last year's entrants. But 538 is still plenty to work with.

If you didn't get around to entering this year, or were too daunted by the complexity, or if you really crapped out in the opening round and need a mulligan, you can still register and submit picks. While any late entries will not be prize-eligible, and will not be included in the standings, the system will still accept and score late entries. One of the best ways to gain an understanding of the scoring nuances is to try it out. Give it a whirl, and you'll be better prepared when next year rolls around. Late registrations will be ignored when auditing for the 3-entry limit, so even if you have three legitimate entries, you can still submit a late set without jeopardy.

It'll take a little while to sift through all of the registrations and identify the GuruPatrons, but I should have that done before the Sweet 16. Once that is done, I'll set up a standings option that lists only GuruPatrons, so that those eligible for GuruPatron prizes can keep track of that potential.

3/20 - This is one of the best days of the year for college hoops. The other is tomorrow. Sixteen games, with inevitable upsets, nail-biters, and do-or-die intensity. The worst part is that so many good games overlap.

Market Madness registrations are still running a bit behind last year, but a good turnout is already in the hopper. My plan is to post and update current standings several times through today, so check back in the late afternoon to see how you're doing.

In fact, I've gotta keep working on some of the setup, so I'm going to cut today's blurb short. Picks are frozen at 12:20pm. The clock keeps ticking. Be there or be square!

3/19 - We're up to 500 registrants for Market Madness as of 10am Wednesday morning, although many have not yet logged in their picks. This is always the busiest day for entry activity. I haven't filled in my bracket yet, either. Guess I'd better start cogitating. The clock is winding down quickly!

The cancellation of the opening Japan series will probably delay the opening freeze for the TSN game, although I have seen no official word yet. It doesn't impact the Swirve or PSC games, as they were ignoring that series anyway. It might also affect your roto league strategy. I had planned to nab a free agent or two for that series, just to get a jump in hitting. Now that's unnecessary.

I see that TSN has added some more baseball players. I have not yet added them to my database, but will do that shortly. Market Madness may have to take precedence today, however. I'll also have to revise the schedule to reflect the two rescheduled games in Oakland on April 3 and June 30.

3/18 - Last year, there were 942 registrations for the Market Madness Contest. Of those, 615 followed through with a set of picks. The other 300+ either got sidetracked, or befuddled, or... who knows.

This year, as of mid-morning about 350 registrations have been submitted; 69 of these have saved a set of picks. So far, so good. Keep 'em coming, boys and girls! The first tournament game is scheduled to tip off at 12:20 EST on Thursday, so that is when all picks will be frozen. Until then, you can change your picks as well, so you might want to get started now, just in case there is any last minute congestion. Thursday morning can be an active time.

In fact, I'd better get cracking on mine. With the PROFL baseball draft in full gear, I've been procrastinating on my bracket analysis. And my Hoops teams are on autopilot. I can't imagine what March would be like if I had a real job to contend with!

Before signing off, though, remember that if you want to be eligible for any on the runner-up prizes, you must be a registered GuruPatron by the end of Thursday. I've heard from several new GuruPatrons in the past week, but this might be an opportune time for some of the rest of you to climb on board. Of the 42 who have contributed since the 1st of the year, 19 are first time donors. Any amount is fine - you decide what this site is worth to you. Thanks again.

3/17 - The brackets are announced, and the speculation begins. You have until Thursday noonish (whenever the first game tips off - probably about 12:15 or so) to submit your picks to the Market Madness Contest. If you've entered or followed this contest before, then you should know the drill by now. But if this is your first venture, then I suggest a few steps to help you figure this all out:

• Read the rules! The scoring method is more complicated than most other pools, but it's not impossible to understand. The key is to buy teams that will exceed their expectations, and to sell short teams that will bomb ahead of schedule. It's particularly helpful to be long the final four teams, especially if they are other than #1 seeds. Last year, for example, Indiana was a great buy as a #5 seed that advanced to the final four.
• Fill out a typical bracket using the tournament scoring simulator. This will show you how the scoring would emerge for a given set of picks, including all of the seed baskets and conference baskets. You might want to use this as the basis for selecting your teams. Pick your longs from the top of the scoring report, and your shorts from the bottom.
• If you submit more than one entry (you can enter up to 3 times), you might want to exclude basket units from at least one. You'll need basket units to achieve and overall top result, but there is also a separate prize for the top score excluding basket units.
• If you have questions, bring them up at the Market Madness message forum. This is a good place to get clarification on rules and/or strategies (for me, or from other contest veterans). You can also check out some of the threads from prior years, where rules and strategies have been discussed.

3/14 - In this week's "McGrady=>who?" TSN sweepstakes, those who went to Webber have the early lead, as CWeb racked up 61 TSNP, probably missing a triple-double only because the Kings were blown out and he watched the end of the game. The other primary swappees were Nowitzki (44 TSNP), Ray Allen (42.5) and Marbury (45.5), so none of the popular choices were duds. So far, at least.

By the way, only one team in the top 100 (TSN Ultimate) still held McGrady last night. A true believer? Trade-short? Or just overslept?

Progressive Sports Challenge baseball prices and stats are now up in the sortable stats. (The Assimilator still has not been updated, however.) If you played that game last year, you should note that the roster configuration will be different this season. You now need 24 players, and there are no wild card slots.

With a 24 player roster, you can now practically draft an entire major league roster. That's not entirely true, since the roster configuration (only 9 pitchers) and player availability make filling those last few slots problematic. But ignoring those technicalities, I took a look at the cost of owning a complete MLB team. Only two clubs - the Yankees and Boston - would not fit within the $75 million limit. Interesting, since those are two of the highest payroll teams in reality. Both of those teams would cost you more like $80 million, depending on the players selected. At the other extreme, there are only 22 Detroit players listed, but you could get them all for a package price of only $27 million. The median MLB team cost is around the mid $60s. I hear that some have suggested that PSC player prices are too high to field a reasonable team. But in the context of these aggregate prices for complete MLB teams, prices sound OK to me. You just can't expect to have top-tier players across the board. That should help promote some differentiation.

3/13 - I usually have the daily blurb posted by 11:00-11:30, sometimes earlier. But it's already 12:30pm (EST), and I'm just starting to think about it. Between baseball drafting, basketball analysis and trading, some golf checking, and some more baseball analysis, the time just flew this morning.

So TSN price changes are already done for Hoops. The two selling themes were "dump McGrady" and "dump Jerome Williams". McGrady's departure has been long anticipated, given his impending 1-game-in-6-days. Williams' hit was due to back-to-back DNPs. Based on price changes, a lot of teams made additional moves as well, since four players each gained $100K or more. That's rather unusual.

The PROFL baseball draft continues slowly. The 4th round is about 2/3 complete, and Team RotoGuru gets 2 picks out of the next five. So far, Greg is keeping his cards face down (which I believe is appropriate) - but there is a lot of advice and chatter from others at the forum. Perhaps the most interesting strategy among other teams is the team which took Pudge Rodriguez and Posada in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Each team must have 2 catchers, and they are clearly trying to corner the market in a lean position. That would have been more attractive with Piazza & Pudge, especially several seasons ago - but it seems more speculative now. They are certainly foregoing a lot of better hitters in the meantime (Pedro Martinez was their 1st pick). If you have a take on this strategy, please weigh in at the forum.

By the way, since the PROFL draft is not publicly accessible (at least yet), I've posted a copy of the Roster Grid. It's not interactively updated, but I'll try to keep it current at least twice per day. For more up-to-date info, just check the forum thread.

3/12 - The PROFL experts draft started to take on some character yesterday. Team RotoGuru picked Barry Zito in the second round (pick #23), complementing Randy Johnson as the 2nd overall pick. Interestingly, one other team also drafted two starters with their first two picks, as the team with picks #8 and #17 took Schilling and Oswalt. Only one other pitcher was taken in the first two rounds - Pedro Martinez at pick #4. It looks like 9 of the teams will be scrambling for pitching, while we will be hunting for hitting. Our 3rd round pick went for Eric Chavez, nailing down one of the few remaining quality third baseman (Pujols and Glaus were already gone, and Nevin is out for the year). For a running commentary on the draft, visit the thread linked above. Hopefully the pace will pick up, as one round per day isn't going to get this done until early April.

In TSN Hoops, Minnesota players started diving in price yesterday. It's a week before their schedule turns light, but Garnett, Hudson, and Szczerbiak posted the three biggest losses yesterday. Part of the reason relates to light Tuesday trading, and part stems from their very heavy ownership. Expect them to continue to leak throughout this week. That doesn't mean you should necessarily sell early, however. It's hard to rationalize selling Garnett when he plays every other day - although there are situations when that can make sense. I'll be holding for another week, however. I'll take the price hits. It's a rare opportunity when owning Garnett offers differentiation.

Thanks for Gurupie gibby88 for suggesting today's quote.

3/11 - If you frequent the message forum, you can sense that the winds have already shifted on the seasons. In the past 24 hours, there have been 187 messages posted in the hoops forums, and 758 in the baseball forums, a ratio of about 4:1. Admittedly, the baseball posts are dominated by drafting activity, which represents about 80% of the baseball total. But even without the drafts, the general baseball discussion is roughly even with the basketball discussion, which has diminished considerably.

I see that Progressive Sports Challenge has introduced its 3 baseball offerings for the coming season. I'll try to get stats and prices posted in the next few days. PSC offers a slightly less intense baseball opportunity, as roster moves are only allowed weekly, and player prices change only once (at the All Star break). If you find the rigor of TSN's or Swirve's daily trading and repricing to be more than you can handle, then PSC may be your best bet. Prizes are good, and customer service is exceptional.

The PROFL Experts League baseball draft is into the 2nd round. Team RotoGuru nabbed Randy Johnson with the second overall pick. Some of the first round picks were a little surprising. I suppose the biggest upgrade thus far is Bobby Abreu, who was selected with the 11th pick in the first round. I would normally expect him to go in the late second or early third round.

3/10 - The madness has already begun for me!

Between baseball drafts, the fantasy hoops stretch drive, and Market Madness preparations, March is always a hectic month at RotoGuru World headquarters. And today starts the PROFL baseball draft for Team RotoGuru. Although Greg Robinson has the reins for this team, I'll be following it closely as well, and I urge all of you to chime in with advice as this draft progresses.

On Monday mornings, I like to comment on notable Hoops events from the weekend. But I've barely had time to pay attention to the NBA. I'm pretty much in "just make sure no one got injured" mode right now, and I think my teams all passed that test. The optimum disposition of Michael Jordan is the issue that has me vexed at the moment. I'm glad I decided to hold for his last two games, as he racked up 89 TSNP. I'm inclined to hold for tomorrow's home tilt vs. Orlando as well, even though I expect Jordan will suffer some selling again today. In the absence of any strong conviction, my mantra of "when in doubt, do nothing" is the operative guideline.

Swirve baseball data is now included in the sortable stats and the Assimilator. I realize that the Assimilator is running sluggishly right now. That's because it has to remember more than 1400 players. Once the season starts, I'll pare it down to the 750 players who make the opening day rosters, and that will speed it up materially. In the meantime, just be patient if it runs slowly. Spring training is a time for a slower pace, anyway! In addition, the Assimilator is probably less useful for preseason activity, since you can use the game sites to mix and match rosters without any trade restrictions. After the season starts, that alternative is no longer viable.

3/7 - In only three games, there was some rather decent scoring. Tim Duncan led everyone with a "welcome back to earth" 55.5 TSNP (after his prior 91 TSNP game). Rookie teammate Emmanuel Ginobili was the only other player to reach 50. His TSN Basic price has been rapidly climbing the past week, up about $500K over that span. Meanwhile, his TSN Ultimate price is stuck at the minimum. The reason for the difference is obvious - decent cheapies are very valuable in the Basic game, but most Ultimate teams have enough roster value to stay away from more speculative players. Even so, I wouldn't be surprised if Ginobili starts attracting a little interest in the Ultimate game.

Tyson Chandler is rewarding those who hung with him during Chicago's light schedule. After two sub-20 TSNP games last week, the big selloff began. Since then, he's notched 82 TSNP in 2 games. No one likes to sustain a $400K price decline, but that level of production certainly takes much of the sting away.

My oldest son turns 21 this weekend. How'd that happen? Happy birthday, Jason!

3/6 - Well, Jordan did play last night. He only played 24 minutes (partly because the game was a blowout), and evidenced some pain, but he did manage 17.5 TSNP in those 24 minutes. If you were looking for a reason to sell him, you've got it. And, if you were looking for a reason to keep him, you've got it.

I released the 2003 version of Market Madness yesterday afternoon. Although there isn't much to be done yet, you can register, review the rules, tinker with the scoring simulator, and make some practice picks based on last year's field. Once the new brackets are announced, I'll clear out all "practice" picks, and we'll start fresh. Hopefully, that will all be set up sometime the evening of Sunday, March 16. Meanwhile, if you notice anything at the contest site that doesn't appear to be working, drop me an email. I changed servers since last year, and while everything seemed to be working OK yesterday, I'm sure I didn't give it a thorough shakedown.

Swirve Baseball was also launched yesterday. I hope to have player prices and such loaded into the sortable stats and Assimilator by the beginning of next week. For those who insist on free fantasy baseball games, this one still offers that opportunity.

3/5 - It was a bad night not to have Tim Duncan - 35 points, 21 boards, 8 assists, 4 blocks, 91.5 TSNP. Most top teams had him, though. That faint sound of people kicking themselves this morning is from those who didn't.

This morning's dilemma is Michael Jordan, who left last night after 15 minutes with back spasms. He'll be a game time decision tonight. With trades refreshed, some teams will play it safe and bail this morning, while many others will wait a day to see what happens tonight. With so many teams undoubtedly picking up Kobe today, any early Jordan price effect should be somewhat dampened.

3/4 - TSN apparently added 19 players to their baseball game yesterday. I've downloaded the updated spreadsheet, but have not yet processed the updates (or even looked at them). Hopefully later today. (Reminder: as announced, the early-bird price discount for TSN Ultimate Baseball ends at 5pm this afternoon.)

TSN Hoops trades are refreshed this afternoon, and I know a lot of teams are happy to have them. After last week's injuries to Brand and Pierce, I've noticed a lot of trade-depleted teams - including mine. Of course, one of the new trades will have to go toward the reacquisition of Kobe tomorrow, but other than that, this week's objective is to try to conserve a few trades. It won't be long before Minnesota's schedule turns, and that is going to put a trading strain on a lot of teams (given the high ownership of Garnett, Hudson, & Szczerbiak). The T-Wolves have a 1-game-in-6-days stretch starting on 3/19, and if this week is any indication, you can expect some price leakage to begin a bit in advance of that. Plan accordingly.

3/3 - Countdown update:
45 days to go in the NBA regular season
23 days until the baseball season opens
13 days until Selection Sunday
It's March!

I guess it's time to put Elton Brand on my "never again" list, now that he's screwed up two seasons in a row for me. The most maddening part is that I had been planning to skip Brand and go directly from Nowitzki to Malone this week. But at the last moment I decided to be more aggressive, use a couple of extra trades, and squeeze Brand into the flow. If Brand had contributed as expected, it would have worked nicely. But all I ended up accomplishing was the extra trade part of the transaction, as Brand put up 3 DNPs while Nowitzki cranked out 111 TSNP. And thus goes the season. Oh well. I'll stop moaning now.

We had the largest single day TSN Ultimate price gain and loss on Saturday. Kobe Bryant dropped $170K, while Tim Duncan rose $160K. The previous high gains were $150K, achieved by Chris Webber on Jan. 18, and repeated by Tracy McGrady just the day before. The previous maximum daily loss was -160K, first by Kobe on November 9, and then duplicated 6 days later by Kwame Brown. (Remember when almost everyone had him?)

Just for kicks, I looked back to find the players with the greatest price volatility over the season to date. To calculate this, I simply summed the absolute values of all daily price changes for each player. Two players have totaled $5 million in absolute price changes so far: McGrady, and Yao Ming. Kobe is third with $4.5m in total swings, and Ricky Davis is the only other player over $4m, ranking 4th with total changes of $4040K. Garnett just missed the $4m cut with $3970. After those five, the next 50 or so have all had extended periods of gravity declines; a $30K decline every day has amounted to $3.6m thus far.

Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month: