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Daily blurbs from the Guru
If this is your first visit to this site, you should first stop by my home page to find out what this site is all about. And please support this site's advertisers. They make free sites like this one possible.

Go forward to more recent blurbs.

9/30 - This just in: Bears football presented by Bank One is not a very good team.

This seems to have been a relatively tame weekend for Football Pickoff. The median score was +30. Still, after pointing out how well last week's frontrunner was doing, H4H2 managed to post a big negative (-253). The RotoGuru blurb jinx, perhaps? If so, sorry. This week's top result was +726 by WiddleAvi, who missed only Minnesota's rout of the 49ers.

Today I announced the 12 managers in the 1st annual RotoGuru Invititational Hoops Challenge. This draft should be a particularly interesting event to follow during mid-October. Some details remain to be worked out, but I'm looking forward to the stiff competition.

Playoff baseball starts today, but I do not plan any fantasy playoff coverage. This is my one chance to enjoy baseball without the potentially conflicting urge to root for or against certain players simply for their fantasy production. A Cubs-Red Sox World Series would be really cool, albeit unlikely. But you never know...

9/29 - Throughout the season, picking up starters who opposed Detroit was generally a winning strategy. But if you used that tactic during the final week, I hope your division race wasn't hanging in the balance, as the Tigers finally found their hitting shoes, winning 5 of their last 6 games - which is precisely what they needed to do to avoid tying the 120 loss futility mark of the '62 Mets, who retained their stature in baseball lore. And with all of the MLB post-season slots sown up, that's about all that was at stake on the final day.

Of note, however, is that Esteban Loaiza flirted with a no-hitter, and his strong final week certainly gives him a shot at the A.L. Cy Young Award, with Roy Halladay as his most likely competition. And Wilson Alvarez probably torched the division hopes of more than a few fantasy teams with a dreadful final day outing.

In Football, Peyton Manning bedeviled the Saints with a satanic showing of 666 TSNP last night - which was 686 better than his quarterback opposition, Aaron Brooks. Three other players topped 500 TSNP.

9/26 - Was that a Carlos-ing door I heard slamming? If your competition had both Carloses (Carli?) - Delgado and Beltran - that's 200+ TSNP to overcome. Beltran is fairly widely held, I'm sure, but owning Delgado required a heavy dose of inspiration - or maybe desperation. Regardless, I know of at least one team (not mine) that vaulted into first place last night on the strength of Delgado's strength.

We're down to the final 3 days. Houston and the Cubs could easily be contending until the bitter end. Florida will probably mop up the wild card berth before Sunday. And home field is still up for grabs between NY/Oakland and SF/Atlanta. Despite that, I don't expect many Yankees to play in both ends of today's Isabel-induced double dip. San Fran is already on record as giving some of their starters additional rest this weekend, although I suspect Bonds will play tonight, after 2 days off. But this is symptomatic of the fantasy havoc that is typically wrought over the final days of any season. If your team is scrapping for every possible point, it can be extremely maddening.

Football is not without it's share of uncertainties this weekend, either. Portis and Culpepper are two notable decisions that are undoubtedly befuddling many fantasy managers. My TSN effort is already floundering this year, but I've got two successful (so far) teams in HTH leagues, one with Culpepper and one with Portis, so I have some tough choices to make. I guess that why they pay me the big bucks.

Good luck to all.

9/25 - I suspect no one expected yesterday's complete game shutouts from Shawn Estes and John Lackey. Both came in meaningful games with post-season implications as well. Roy Oswalt's gem, however, was widely anticipated, especially once manager Felipe Alou announced that most of the S.F. regulars would be sitting out the game. I'm sure the Cubs appreciated that! And, according to plan, Oswalt did come up big against the Gnomes, which was key, since the 'Stros don't seem to be hitting this week. Someone suggested that they have already rounded into their typical playoff form.

And then there was Mike Mussina, who had a 2-hit shutout through 5 innings before inexplicably melting down in the sixth, earning an amazing -162 TSNP in that inning alone (including the -45 TSNP cost of going from a win to a loss). I'll bet more than one team had their late season hopes quashed by that sudden and violent implosion.

If so, you might want to turn to Hoops. The sortable stats are now loaded with TSN prices and positions. And the Assimilator should be ready within a few days.

9/24 - It was a night of feast or famine. Twelve teams scored 2 runs or less. Four of those teams even won. And then there were the offensive explosions: Colorado winning 20-9 at home, San Francisco scoring 10 runs in one inning in Houston, and of course, the perpetual offensive juggernaut, Detroit, going off for 15 runs.

So, if you picked the correct lineup of pitchers and hitters, you could have really racked up the points. But since the right hitters included names like Ron Belliard (111 TSNP!), Jason Lane (who?), and Reed Johnson, that seems unlikely.

The A.L. postseason lineup is almost a done deal. Boston could wrap up the wild card today with a win and a Mariner loss. But the NL Central and wild card races still offer plenty of suspense. If you're looking for teams that are still in contention, then the short list looks like the Cubs, Astros, Marlins, and Phillies. The Dodgers are still a long shot, and I think you can pretty much stick a fork in the Cardinals.

Yesterday, I unleashed a new GuruPatron recognition program. The details are in this thread, but the upshot is that I will now base recognition categories on cumulative giving, rather than annual giving. The list of GuruPatrons has been updated to reflect this change, although the two new upper tiers - Dudes and SuperDudes - are still not published, pending feedback from those who would populate those lofty categories. If you are a GuruPatron, please check the validation program to (1) make sure you are properly recognized, and (2) to check on your status. Thanks to everyone who has generously supported this site!

9/23 - Football Pickoff contestant H4H2 has certainly gotten off to a flying start this season. After three weeks, he has 1505 points, qualifying for bonus points each week. In each of the past 2 seasons, a final score (at the end of the game) of 1505 would have qualified for about 25th place, so he's certainly off to a blistering pace. "Slow and steady" may be a good formula for success, but "fast and steady" is even better.

The top pickoff score of the weekend belonged to Rabid, who missed only 2 games (one an overtime loss), and who efficiently doubled Arizona over Green Bay. His weekly total of 664 was more than 100 points better than anyone else.

The top TSN football producer came out of last night's game, as Jake Plummer racked up 459 TSNP. Go figure.

TSN launched the new Ultimate Hoops game yesterday. The primary rule change for this year is a gametime freeze. Now, instead of a daily freeze at 12 noon ET, players can be bought or sold right up until gametime. At the message forum, early reaction to this change has been mixed, but I think we'll have to wait to see how this goes. The biggest impact might be in the endgame, when managers often wait until the last moment to make trades in order to keep others from discovering and reacting to their moves. In any event, I've started collecting player data, and will aim to have the sortable stats loaded with positions and prices by the end of this week.

9/22 - In football, there weren't any real "bust-out" games yesterday. But there certainly were a few notable "busts". Let's start with Doug Johnson, whose interception trifecta led to -44 TSNP. Then there was Marshall Faulk, whose 76 TSNP represented only his first bad break. TSN's highest priced receiver, Marvin Harrison, disappointed with only 70 TSNP. Harrison has yet to crack 200 TSNP in any of his first three games. And on the other side of that field, Donte' Stallworth managed a total output of -1 TSNP. If you avoided at least these four guys, you were off to a good start.

In baseball, Pedro and Prior gave most teams a solid foundation for the day. Hopefully, you didn't add Schilling to the recipe, as I did. With only one week remaining, end games strategies will now most likely be reflective of your situation. Some teams will be trying to match up against their competitors, while others will be scrambling to differentiate. Add in the uncertainties associated with a lot of real MLB teams who have mixed incentives during the last week, and all we can expect is the unexpected. Stay focused. One week from today, it's all over - barring a makeup or playoff game next Monday, of course.

9/19 - The anti-Detroit pitching strategy has been a pretty steady winner this season. But down the stretch, the anti-Met strategy also looks pretty potent. Over the past week, opposing starters have averaged +110 TSNP against them, including four straight games of +129 or better. To be fair, those last four pitchers were all quality guys - Clement, Prior, Wood, and Vazquez. But that's still a pretty remarkable streak. And if that is the type of strategy you're drawn to, then don't overlook Anaheim or San Diego either - although don't tell that to Sidney Ponson. The Mets, Angels, and Padres have all been more woeful than the Tigers this past week.

This weekend brings the first byes to the NFL schedule. Obviously, that has direct implications if you own any players from the four dormant teams. But it may also have an impact on Football Pickoff. In the first two weeks, simply picking favorities was a pretty successful strategy. In part, this was because of the bonus points for picking 10 or more winners. Even though there were some dreadful upsets (from a scoring perspective), going with the consensus favorites each week would have earned 100 bonus points each week.

But this week - and for the next eight weeks - there are only 14 games, rather than 16. That makes bonus points more difficult to attain, since you can only afford 4 misses, rather than 6. On the other hand, last year worked out to have the opposite trend. In 2002, consensus favorites ended the year with a total score of -302. But during the weeks with 14 games, consensus favorites racked up +172 points. Meanwhile, weeks with a 16 game slate produced a dismal score of -596. Go figure.

9/18 - Who knows how many games will be played today? Both Baltimore and Philly have advanced their starting times, but based on the current weather outlook, it may be too little too late. We'll know soon enough. I'll bet the crowds will be sparse. How would you like to play a game in a rainy, windy, empty stadium? Yuck.

With baseball winding down and football now in full swing, I turned my attention to some hoops setup yesterday. The schedule pages are now updated for the new season, including the full season schedule grid (which also includes a link to a spreadsheet version), the 4-week schedule generator, and the Sched-O-Matic. I spot checked everything, but if you notice any errors or irregularities, please report them.

9/17 - Before I get sidetracked, yesterday I forgot to mention last weekend's Football Pickoff top results. It was a week when simply picking the Vegas favorites wasn't a bad approach, as that would have netted 12 wins and 249 points. But two entrants managed to get 14 games correct, as bwursten's 746 points topped Stuck6000 by 2. Interestingly, both of them doubled the Dallas Monday night win.

Most of the popular pitchers fared pretty well last night. The only complete bust was Esteban Loaiza, who once looked like the A.L. Cy Young favorite, but now has backed into a real horse race. Meanwhile, Richard Hidalgo had a rare 3-digit hitting (TSNP) total with 3 dingers in Colorado.

The weather should hold today, but starting tomorrow, games in Baltimore, Philly, New York, and Boston all have some Isabel risk. The Friday doubleheader in Pittsburgh also looks problematic. Keep one eye on the radar...

9/16 - Who'd have thunk that the offensive juggernaut in the MNF game would turn out to be Billy Cundiff? After posting -40 TSNP in the opening week (and sustaining a $100K TSN price loss), he split the uprights 7 times for 380 TSNP. And before you all go out to pick up this hot kicker, be advised that Dallas has a bye this week.

The first TSN repricing occurred last night. I didn't see anything very surprising. But if you did well in your roster value gains, you probably had an otherwise disappointing weekend. The top three gainers (Ultimate) combined for $1.71m in gains, but only 383 TSNP. Digging a bit deeper, the top 10 gainers booked $3.25m but only averaged 137 TSNP. It was a weekend in which big points and big gains were a tough combo, and given the choice - considering the limited number of games - I'd rather have the points. (Oh well, at least I had the gains.)

When planning your baseball moves this week, be conscious of the flight path of hurricane Isabel. It could have repercussions on games in several cities along the eastern seaboard. With hurricanes you never know, but the situation should clarify over the next day or two - and "forewarned is forearmed."

9/15 - I guess it was a "Ruthian" day for Jamal Lewis in many respects. I guess that about sums it up.

And I guess that when baseball season ends, I can simply turn my focus immediately to hoops. Once again, my football mediocrity is firmly cemented.

Meanwhile, Randy Johnson made a guest appearance yesterday, picking up 193 TSNP in a one-hitter over Colorado (in Arizona). You can rationalize it by saying that Colorado never hits well on the road, but in their previous five games - all on the road - the Rockies pinned negative TSNPs on four of the opposing starters. And Johnson's last 3-digit outing was a +107 way back on July 25. Those were reasons enough for me to sidestep this start. Oops...

9/12 - Check out these pitching stats:

6 games started
38-2/3 innings pitched (6+ per start)
0 wins, 2 losses
4.89 ERA
BA by opposing hitters: .304

Nothing special, eh? Do you recognize them?

Those were Roy Halladay's stats at the end of April. Since then, he's shown some modest improvement... including a 20-4 WL record and an ERA of 3.00. And all four of those losses occurred in August, when he was only 2-4.

By the way, during their opening month, Toronto was only 10-18. Since May, they've been 10 games over .500 (64-54). How important do you think Halladay is to that team?

We' re getting to the point when football decisions have to be made once again. The first TSN price change will also occur on Monday, and it will be reflect your week 2 frozen roster. If there is a price gainer that you covet, or a probable loser that you want to avoid, you'll have to make that trade for this weekend's games. Once a roster slot is locked in, there's no opportunity to make another move prior to the price change, which will occur Monday night when the final game of the weekend is frozen.

9/11 - For a number of years, the mantra "never miss a start from Pedro or Randy" was a pretty successful maxim. Remember when "Randro" was the dominant trading strategy? (Note: you can still find if you simply google Randro.) But this year, Pedro ranks 13th among pitchers in total points, and 9th in TSNP/EG. (Randy is obviously much further back). Still, after yesterday's 156 TSNP masterpiece, Pedro ranks 4th in average TSNP per start (81.0), and while he hasn't been as automatic this year, he just demonstrated why it's still risky to pass him by. By the way, the top three in TSNP/start are Schmidt, Prior, and Loaiza.

Today's schedule is loaded with afternoon games. If you're a working stiff, you'll have plenty of opportunities for diversion, as 8 of the 13 games will be played in full sunlight (weather permitting, of course). Three of those games feature Loaiza, Prior, and Halladay, and if you're playing the TSN game, it's hard to imagine that at least one of those pitchers isn't on your roster - and maybe all three. So you might want to get your heavy lifting done this morning.

9/10 - Not a good night to be picking up starting pitching. Only one pitcher topped 100 TSNP, and that was Oakland's AAA call-up Justin Duchscherer, who threw 7 shutout innings against Anaheim.

Meanwhile, the hitting leader list isn't littered with household names either.

GuruPatron donations continue to trickle in. As the page heading currently notes, 98 Gurupies have contributed $3614 so far in 2003. Fortunately, hosting costs have gone down this year, and I should be able to cover costs again this year. Since the inception of the GuruPatron program in March, 2001, 316 people have contributed a total of $19,929, and I am very grateful for that cumulative support. The significant rate of decline is of some concern, however. Of the 98 who have contributed this year, 43 are first time donors. Doing the math, that means that only about 20% of previous donors (55/273) have renewed their financial support this year. This helps to point out to me the importance of continuing to seek new growth, which I have not always been diligent in pursuing.

By the way, if you intended to donate this year but can't remember if you've done so (or when you last contributed), please ask. I keep track of all donations, and can easily look it up for you.

9/9 - For openers, congrats to Pickoff entrant SwinganaMiss, who got 15 out of 16 games correct this weekend. Curiously, the only one he missed was his doubled game.

Football takes a brief pause now while we return to baseball. There are no NFL games until Sunday, so there really isn't much to be done for right now - other than to mull over the options, and pay attention to breaking news.

But in baseball, we have only 20 days remaining! If you've been hoarding pitching trades, don't wait much longer to spend them. By the time the last week rolls around, it may be difficult to find good options, as some regulars start to shut down in favor of September call-ups. Of course, as long as some teams remain in contention, their starters should continue to be called upon for normal work. Teams with playoff spots locked up can be particularly maddening, however, as rotations are shuffled and studs tend to work fewer innings in preparation for the playoffs.

I know it's a little premature to be planning your last week of pitching, but it's not too early to be whittling down your extra trades - if you have any.

9/8 - Anyone need a Mulligan for your suicide pool? If you took the "safe" choice of Miami, you do.

Surprises in the first week? As always, there were some. Every year some player comes out of obscurity, and this year's winner is clearly Anquan Boldin. Whether this will be a one week blip remains to be seen. In all likelihood, he'll be the TSN big $gainer next week, and come up virtually empty in points. It's your decision whether to follow the flock, or buck the trend.

There were also plenty of disappointments, with the Miami defense probably representing the most widely held debacle.

Perhaps a quick review of my stats reports is warranted at the beginning of a new season. If you want to see the points for just this week, look at the weekly fantasy points report. This provides the week's points for each of the three covered games, sorted by position. The sortable stats provide a much greater variety of sorting and selection options. The Assimilator allows you to look at your roster, and is a useful place to tinker with potential roster moves. And all of these features provide links to individual player pages, which even allow you to drill back for several years, if you want to dig.

Football Pickoff standings are updated through 15 games. The points seem to be fairly balanced this weekend, as the median score is just slightly negative with only one game to go.

9/5 - The first NFL regular season game is in the books. The results aren't likely to make or break anyone's first week, although Laveranues Coles had a nice game - though not spectacular. The Jets defense was the only other slot to garner more than 200 TSNP. Pat Ramsey was close, much of his tally coming on a last minute scramble that set up the winning FG. And Trung Canidate owners can't be too pleased with his limited attempts.

I expect to have fantasy football points posted by mid afternoon for all three covered games. However, I'll leave the sortable stats as is until after Sunday, since there is more useful information gained by leaving last year's points in place for now. The Assimilator, player pages, and the weekly points page will show Thursday night's results. Also, points will not be posted in Football Pickoff until after the Sunday freeze.

I was advised yesterday of an error in my baseball schedule. I had Montreal & the Cubbies scheduled to play on Monday, but that is really an off-day. The series (in Puerto Rico) is Tuesday-Thursday. I've corrected this now, but wanted to give you a heads up in case Monday's schedule was factoring into your plans. (Currently, ESPN also incorrectly lists a game on Monday.)

9/4 - My first instinct yesterday was not to pick up Tim Hudson for his start at Baltimore. He was pitching on the road, and I thought that Baltimore had been hitting well during the second half of the year. But upon further investigation, I noted that Hudson's road ERA was still under 3.00 (not any more, however), and that Baltimore had been one of the most attractive teams for opposing starters of late, surrendering 3 straight triple digit outings. Coupled with the realization that many of my closest competitors already had him, I decided I'd better not miss it.

Suffice it to say that sometimes, first instincts should be respected.

Of course, since he was so widely held (60% of active rosters, by at least one sampler), the damage is somewhat neutralized. And, I also managed to pick up Aubrey Huff, who effectively erased the Hudson hole. Win some, lose some.

If you're playing Swirve football, you'd better already have your lineup in. Week #1 rosters are frozen at noon today. PSC gives you until tonight. TSN only requires that you have your Thursday players locked by game time. And I'm sure other games all have their idiosyncrasies. Make sure you doublecheck to know what your requirements are.

Are you ready for some football?

9/3 - So much for the hitting potential of doubleheaders.

If you were stocked with Cardinal and Cub hitters yesterday, you were probably disappointed - unless one of them was named Edmonds. Only three hitters managed to better than 13 TSNP in 24 innings.

Let me clarify the TSN Football price change process. The first price change will not be until night of Monday, September 15. That is at the end of the week #2 games. It will reflect trading that takes place during the prior week - essentially those trades that people made between weeks #1 and #2. Thus, if a heavily draft player bombs in the first game, he could very well open the year with a price loss. That loss won't impact your available funds until week #3 (since it occurs at the end of the week #2 freeze), but you'll earn it unless you sell that player prior to his week #2 freeze. Clear as mud?

We had another 70 registrations for Football Pickoff yesterday. Keep 'em coming. The more, the merrier. And it's free, of course.

9/2 - Fantasy baseball managers often try to avoid having two active starters who are opposing each other. But yesterday's matchup of Curt Schilling vs. Sidney Ponson aptly demonstrates how this can sometimes work out very well. The two combined for 251 TSNP, split as evenly as possible.

Football Pickoff is up to 186 registrations so far, of which a little over half have already logged some picks. In the Thursday game, Washington is the currently favorite with 58%. The most lopsided game on the slate so far is Miami (89%) over Houston (11%). That may seem like a safe pick, but the risk/reward trade-off is certainly severe. If you pick Miami and get it right, you earn 11 points (plus a bonus if you get at least 10 picks correct overall), but if Houston upsets the Fins, you lose 89 points. Last year, there were only two games with a favorite selected by more than 85%, and the underdog won one of those two games! In games with a favorite between 81-85%, favorites were only 16-6 (73%). Something to ponder.

If you enjoy pick 'em style games, there are several others that you are invited to try. Yahoo! offers a free Survival game in which you must pick only one winner each week. The caveat is that once you pick a team, you cannot select it again for the remainder of the season. And if your team loses, you're out. Simple and brutal. I set up a division for RotoGurupies, open to the first 50 to sign up. Details are in this thread (post [6]).

Post 8 of that same thread links to another set of free opportunities at a different site. offers a standard pick 'em game and a slightly more complex version of a suicide game. Gurupie deepsnapper has set up divisions for any interested Gurupie. Feel free to try them out.

9/1 - Sunday was a day for pitching and hitting. Nine pitchers topped 100 TSNP. But many of the top hitters got in their licks. As I survey the team results from yesterday, I see a lot of points.

Today is a national holiday in the states (Labor Day), and yet there are only 11 games scheduled - and at least one is a make-up game. How can so many teams (8) be off on a national holiday? Odd.

Unless you're still competing for something in baseball - and I realize many are - the focus shifts to football this week. There is one game on Thursday night, and then a full slate on Sunday/Monday. As a reminder, here are the freeze requirements for the various games:

  • TSN does not require a complete roster on Thursday, but if you have any Jets or Redskins on your roster at gametime on Thursday night, they'll be locked in for the weekend. You can then continue to make unlimited trades until Monday. However, you must have a complete roster in place by Sunday night, so don't leave your Monday slots vacant until the last minute, or you'll get stiffed on Sunday. (In other words, you can apparently still freely swap your Monday players up until Monday night, but don't leave those slots vacant on Sunday.)
  • Swirve freezes your week 1 roster at noon (EDT) Thursday. You don't need a complete roster to score, but any trades you make after the Thursday freeze won't take effect until week #2. (By the way, the "RotoGurupies" division still has eleven openings. First come, first served.)
  • Progressive Sports Challenge requires a complete roster by 8:30pm on Thursday evening. No vacant slots are allowed, and trades after that time apply to week #2.
  • Football Pickoff freezes all pre-Sunday games at kickoff time, so you only need to have the Thursday night game picked on Thursday. The rest of your slate will be frozen at 1pm EDT on Sunday.
TSN added a few players to its football eligibles last week. They didn't announce anything, but I found them on Saturday and added them to my tables. I also discovered about 5 price discrepancies for team defenses. The excel spreadsheet that TSN made available had 5 erroneous prices. So I fixed those as well. As far as I know, the sortable stats and Assimilator are now up to date and accurate (although some team affiliations may be out of date). Please report any apparent errors.

Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

2003: August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

2002: December. . . November. . . October. . . September. . . August. . . July. . . June. . . May. . . April. . . March . . . February . . . January

Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

2001: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

2000: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

1999: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

1998: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March

RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is neither employed by nor compensated by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to Guru<>.

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