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Daily blurbs from the Guru
If this is your first visit to this site, you should first stop by my home page to find out what this site is all about. And please support this site's advertisers. They make free sites like this one possible.

Go forward to more recent blurbs.

2/27 - I jumped on the computer last night shortly after 9pm, and saw that Duncan was on the way to a monster game. So I flipped on the TV to see if the game was being televised. It was, and I promptly saw Timmy make a couple of free throws, sink a few jumpers, grab a rebound, and grab his knee. Ugh.

I did reasonably well at dodging injury problems prior to the All Star break. But my team seems like a MASH unit since then. At least I didn't make the popular move yesterday of Garnett=>Duncan. I've had Duncan for awhile. It really smarts when you pick up a player just in time for an injury - as I'm sure some of you can relate to this morning.

2/26 - Timing is everything. If Sam Cassell was going to pick a night for a surprise DNP, he couldn't have done much better for most teams. One of the most popular trades yesterday was Cassell=>Kobe, and it had nothing to do with Sam's health. Still, 26% of all rosters continue to own Cassell (down from 37% the day before), so I guess that collective sigh is not universally one of relief.

Meanwhile, this is probably the first time all season that Kobe has been a significant factor. He was pretty constantly in gravity until a week ago, and yesterday was his first daily price gain of more than $30K. He'll apparently miss one game next week (March 2nd) for a hearing in Colorado, but he should be back for the following night's game. With the density of L.A.'s schedule, I doubt if many teams will be motivated to move him for that outage, but it is worth keeping in mind if you're still thinking of adding him.

2/25 - A week ago, I was deciding whether to pick up Duncan or Brand. Brand had a price advantage, and was also potentially a longer-term hold. But Duncan had recently been putting up numbers like the Duncan of old, and on a hunch, I took the road less traveled. Until yesterday, that was looking like an unfortunate path. Brand had outpointed Duncan by 50 TSNP over the first three games. But Duncan essentially evened the score by posting 58 TSNP against Houston while Brand managed a dismal 13 TSNP in Dallas. You can just never tell. At least, I can't.

There will be a lot of TSN trade activity today. For openers, Blazers get dumped, and Lakers get added. I'm sure there will be several other popular moves as well.

2/24 - This just in: The Cavs don't suck anymore! In their last 18 games, they've gone 11-7, including four road wins.

If you've thought that the recent price changes in TSN Ultimate Hoops were a bit puzzling, I think you're right. Evidence suggests that daily price changes may still be reflecting multiple days of trade activity. In any event, they clearly aren't properly reflecting daily trade activity. On Sunday, for example, Speedy Claxton had the most net sells (-235) but his price dropped only $10K. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh dropped $110K in price on a net ownership change of only -3. I've alerted TSN, and they are looking into it, so I imagine it will get fixed by tonight. But if you've been depending on normal price movements over the last few days, you've been screwed. Disappointing, to say the least.

I've set up a GuruPatron division in TSN Ultimate Baseball. To join this division, you must be a GuruPatron. If you are, you can find the division name and password at the bottom of the GuruPatron validation page. (Note, you may need to reset your ID# to be properly recognized. Just follow the instructions to update it online - and send me an email if you're still stymied.)

2/23 - I don't know if I'm well rested, but I'm back, nonetheless.

We're coming up to the busiest time of the year at RotoGuru World headquarters. Hoops, of course, remains in full swing. Market Madness will be gearing up shortly. Baseball drafting activity is imminent. A lot will happen over the next seven weeks. Hopefully, I can keep up with it all.

Special thanks to those of you who have recently sent in GuruPatron donations (without any special prodding, no less!) Last year, only $1,000 came in prior to the end of February, so we're well ahead of last year's pace. And of the 37 who have contributed so far in 2004, 14 are new GuruPatrons, so there's plenty of fresh vitality. That's also evidenced in site activity (at least as measured by bandwidth usage), which is up more than 20% over last year.

2/12 - The road to riches yesterday went through Jerry Stackhouse. But Stackhouse only delivered 18 TSNP. The road to rewards went through Golden State, as Speedy Claxton and Brian Cardinal parlayed their $1.4m combined cost into an amazing 112.5 TSNP. Ay carumba!

Tonight features only 3 NBA games, and then the fantasy layoff begins. The next TSN Ultimate price change (after tonight's) won't occur until next Tuesday (according to the rules, at least). Apparently, the PSC freeze will still be on Monday, but other than that, you can goof off with impunity. I'm planning on it.

Next week, I'll be vacationing in the St. Pete/Tampa area. I may or may not post any blurbs. Probably not. Stats will be updated as usual, but other than that, expect a low profile from me.

Enjoy the break. Conserve some trades! And believe it or not, there are only 58 active days left in the NBA regular season.

2/11 - There were plenty of NBA games last night, and many TSN Ultimate teams had a slate of 9 or 10 players active. But in spite of Garnett (who almost every team owns) getting 70 TSNP, no team managed to crack 400 TSNP for the night. And the top team of the night, which amassed 396.5 TSNP, had a roster valued at less than $54 million. Suffice it to say that a lot of the widely held players underproduced their averages.

There are two more days of games before the break - 9 games tonight, and only 3 tomorrow. No team plays both days, and five teams are already done until after the break. Be aware that for TSN Ultimate, there will be no price changes during the break. For TSN Basic, of course, the season ends.

2/10 - If you owned Rasheed Wallace in anticipation of Portland's dense upcoming schedule, it's probably time to reload. Over the next two weeks, Portland plays seven times - which is remarkable with the 4-day All Star break in the middle. But 'Sheed is headed to Atlanta, which plays only 3 times during the same period - the next which is not until February 18. The other significant implication of the 5-player trade is how the addition of Abdur-Rahim and Ratliff will impact Zach Randolph. I'm not talking about playing time - Randolph will certainly continue to get his minutes. But will his role change at all - and in a way that impacts his fantasy value? Only time will tell.

Tomorrow, TSN trades are refreshed once again, and a lot of teams will be itching to get them. This has been a tough week for injuries, and many TSN teams have fewer trades today than they had planned - present company included. Nothing like an All Star break to facilitate a re-arming of the trade arsenal.

2/9 - Some TSN teams put up monstrous totals yesterday. In fact, if you had a 450 TSNP day, you didn't even make the top 15! Today will be a different story, however. Based on last night's frozen rosters, 48 of the top 100 TSN Ultimate teams will have no players active tonight, and only 11 teams will have 2 players active. And the most widely held player tonight will be Mark Blount.

Speaking of the top 100 teams, the second most widely owned player is now Sam Cassell. Not surprising, I guess, since he's the top producing guard (total TSNP) over the past 30 days. Also of note is Joe Johnson, whose ownership dropped roughly in half yesterday (from 98 to 47 of the top 100 teams).

Since I'm on the topic of the top 100 TSN teams, here's the current consensus top 100 roster:

Guards: Cassell[90], Daniels[87], Kidd[55], Stoudamire/Johnson[47]
Forwards: Garnett[98], Brand[70]. Marshall[63], Randolph[55]
Centers: Miller[63], Shaq[32]

Larar Odom actually has more owners [49] than Shaq or the 4th guard, but he only ranks 5th among forwards.

2/6 - Thre were only two NBA games last night, and unless you had Duncan, you almost certainly had an off night. And if you were going to watch some basketball on TV, the Duke-Carolina game was certainly better than the two NBA games.

Sorry, I can't think of anything else germane to say, and I don't feel like blathering aimlessly today. Enjoy the weekend.

2/5 - Fantasy managers (like me) probably wish Shaq would be more careful about what he asks for. Last night, the refs were very accommodating in sending him to the foul line, where he shot a woeful 9-20. And I held my breath when he was asked about the officiating after the game. Fortunately, he behaved like a choir boy.

This has not been a good week for (what was) my top TSN Ultimate team. Two more DNPs last night give me four for the past week. Bosh was not a surprise, but McGrady blindsided me for the second time in five days - and neither was related to his sore foot. TMac was a nice differentiator for that team during January, but he's now differentiating in fast reverse. Back to the drawing board today.

Football Pickoff prize winners were notified yesterday by email. Here is the list:

  • Grand Prize ($150): DR Stars

  • Midseason Prize ($100): Vilica1

  • GuruPatron prizes (RotoGuru merchandise):
        Sludge 1, Beerhunters, yesno, ScoobyDrew, beerrun

  • Midseason GuruPatron prizes (DVD):
        TD2, BF Reds, Balrog, Gman15, Chuck Rules
  • Congrats to all.

    2/4 - Oh, Bosh!

    Chris Bosh sprained his ankle last night, and now is a dreaded "game time decision" for tonight. He's on 86 of the top 100 TSN Ultimate teams (and 42%of all teams), so a lot of managers have a tough decision to make today.

    It's looking more and more like Antonio Daniels will be taking over the cheap "gots to have" slot on most rosters. Over the past 7 games, he's averaged 37 TSNP/G, with only one game under 30 TSNP. During the same span, Ray Allen has only been better by 2.5 TSNP/G. As of last night's freeze, Daniels was still on less than 15% of all rosters (and only 42 of the top 100). Look for that to change today, with trades refreshed.

    2/3 - For the first couple of months, Zach Randolph was clearly the guy who everyone had to have, offering near-stud production at a near-$4m price. Zach cooled a bit in January, however, with his TSNP/G average recently hovering around 30, rather than 40. But nature abhors a vacuum, and someone has clearly stepped up to fill that "gots to have" roster slot. He's on 98 of the top 100 Ultimate rosters, and all of the top 25. And over the last 15 days, he's ranked #5 in total TSNP, while his price has gradually risen to a lofty $3.4m.

    Of course, you know who it is. And what makes Joe Johnson's situation so interesting is that his days are numbered - not because his productivity is likely to wane, but because his schedule becomes "hor-r-r-rible" after the All Star break. Specifically, from Feb. 18 through March 11, Phoenix plays only 8 times (23 days). No other teams plays less than 10 times during that span, and more than half of all teams play at least 12 times. Admittedly, it is possible for a player to still offer good value during a light schedule period if his cost/point is attractive enough - but that's not the case here. During that span, around 20 players are projected to produce more points at a lower cost. It remains to be seen who the leading replacement candidate will be. Maybe Zach Randolph again. Maybe it will be spread around. Or maybe someone else will step into that role, taking advantage of a team injury, or a trade, or simply stepping up his game.

    But if you're thinking that Johnson is one of those "lock him up and throw away the key" opportunities, you might want to rethink that posture.

    2/2 - Obviously, the Super Bowl exceeded its non-hype, and turned out to be a great game. And, for a change, the outcome mattered in the determination of the Football Pickoff winner. Congrats to DR Stars, who needed the New England victory to secure his own. Runner-up Vilica1 claimed the Midseason prize. And although there is no prize for it, kudos to pickster, who had the best score during the playoffs, missing only one of the eleven games.

    Prize winners will receive email notifications later this week. Meanwhile, while it's fresh in your mind, if you have any suggestions for next year's version, please chime in here.

    Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

    2004: January

    Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

    2003: December . . . November . . . October . . . September . . . August . . . July . . . June . . . May . . . April . . . March . . . February . . . January

    Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

    2002: December. . . November. . . October. . . September. . . August. . . July. . . June. . . May. . . April. . . March . . . February . . . January

    Click here for prior daily blurbs, by month:

    2001: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

    2000: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

    1999: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March . . . . . February . . . . . January

    1998: December . . . . . November . . . . . October . . . . . September . . . . August . . . . . July . . . . . June . . . . . May . . . . . April . . . . . March

    RotoGuru is produced by Dave Hall (a.k.a. the Guru), an avid fantasy sports player. He is neither employed by nor compensated by any of the fantasy sports games discussed within this site, and all opinions expressed are solely his own. Questions or comments are welcome, and should be emailed to Guru<>.

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